FRIDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews BOCHUM v MAINZ and GIRONA v CELTA VIGO both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
BOCHUM V MAINZ
7.30pm Another weekend rolls around on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE! It’s been a week full of drama in the Champions League and Europa League, but we’re back to our usual Friday night football slot of one game in the Bundesliga and one in La Liga. We start the evening in the Bundesliga as Bochum host Mainz in a battle of the bottom two sides this season. From all the teams in the Bundesliga, it’s just these two left that haven’t won a game yet this season. Mainz will be absolutely gutted to be sitting rock bottom with just two points from their opening eight games – they were a top half side last season. Bochum were involved in the relegation battle last season; they only finished two points ahead of Stuttgart in the relegation playoff spot and they would have been expected to be in a relegation battle again this season. Mainz will be surprised to be here, and it’s only takes a few more losses for morale to get really low and then all of a sudden they’re in a relegation dogfight and well off the pace too. This game is massive for both sides really; despite it probably being a low quality affair.
We have a very open betting heat, and you would expect a close game too. Bochum are the favourites with home advantage at 2.66 with Mainz trading 2.82 and the draw is 3.6 at the time of writing. Bochum were very poor away from home last season; they only managed nine points all season and they only stayed up through their solid home form. Given they both sit in the bottom two places, they both have poor records this season. Mainz have only managed one point away from home. Bochum have been creating more chances than Mainz, but they have been terrible at the back. Their xG conceded is 1.86 which is the joint-worst record in the Bundesliga this season. Mainz have been much more solid; their average xG conceded is only 1.31. Both sides have been pretty limited going forward. I am tempted by the draw here at 3.6, but this game screams a low scoring and very tight affair. I was surprised to see Under 2.5 goals trading as big as 2.1 when I clicked into the market – I thought Unders would be odds on. I know Bochum have been conceding chances, but Mainz have been limited going and home advantage is clearly important for Bochum. I couldn’t put anyone off the draw, but Unders looks a nice bet at 2.1.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Under 2.5 goals at 2.1 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BocMai
GIRONA V CELTA VIGO
8pm We move over to La Liga next as Girona host Celta Vigo. We have a tale of two very different clubs here. Girona fans must be having to pinch themselves as they sit in second place after ten games. They have the same amount of points as Real Madrid, and they’re one point ahead of Barcelona! I’m sure they will drop down the table as the season goes on, but for the time being they are in dream land. It’s a different story for Celta Vigo however; they sit in the relegation zone with just six points from their ten games. They are within touching distance of a lot of teams on nine points so if they could put two wins together they would likely shoot up the table, but for the time being they are under pressure. I always look at their squad and feel that they are too good to go down, but they were involved in the relegation battle last season too – with a lot of other sides it has to be said! Girona come into the game as the odds on favourites; they are trading 1.88 at the time of writing with Celta Vigo 4.4 and the draw is 4.0.
Despite sitting in the relegation zone, Celta Vigo won’t be unhappy with their performance level. They are playing a very open game this season, and while that is costing them at the back they are creating chances. They are creating more than they are conceding, and if they keep playing at this level then they should be fine. Their average xG created is 1.52 which puts them inside the top six. Girona are inside the top four on average xG created; only Real Madrid, Barcelona and Sevilla are creating more than them this season which is a fantastic achievement. You couldn’t say that they have been lucky at the start of the season to be sitting in second spot. They have been reasonably solid at the back too. If I was having a bet in the match odds market I would opt for Girona at 1.88 with home advantage, but this game screams goals in my opinion. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.76 and that looks cracking value in a game which should be very open with plenty of chances.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.88 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/GirCel
