FRIDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews BAYERN MUNICH v HOFFENHEIM and SEVILLA v ALAVES both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
BAYERN MUNICH V HOFFENHEIM
7.30pm The Bundesliga is back on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE for Friday Night Football, and we also have our usual schedule of one Bundesliga game and one La Liga game to enjoy! We have two interesting markets to go through, and we kick off the action with the German Champions as Bayern Munich host Hoffenheim. On paper, this is a game that Bayern will be fully expected to win and they come into it trading as short as 1.17 at the time of writing. That’s one of the shortest prices in Europe this weekend! Hoffenheim haven’t been too bad this season either, they are currently sitting in seventh as we return from the winter break – I suppose it’s just a reflection of the gulf in class between Bayern Munich and the average Bundesliga side these days! At the moment, it looks like we might have another decent title race on our hands in Germany though. Bayer Leverkusen have been fantastic this season and they currently have a four point advantage over Bayern at the top of the table – Bayern do have a game in hand however, and perhaps we might see some drama. It surely can’t be any more dramatic than the final day last season, but it would be nice to see Leverkusen push them all the way.
Hoffenheim have been creating a decent level of chances this season, but it’s clear to see that they play a very open game. They are conceding more chances than they are creating – their average xG conceded is 1.69 which is the third worst defensive record in the Bundesliga this season. That’s not exactly a record you want to bring to Bayern Munich away! It’s easy to understand why Bayern are trading so short, and I feel this is a case of how many goals will Bayern score rather than will they win. Bayern’s average xG created this season is 2.28 which is the best attacking figure from all of Europe’s major leagues. I know they are level above everyone else, but that’s still impressive. Before we go rushing into Bayern on the handicap, it’s worth noting that Hoffenheim have picked up two draws from the last three meetings – that’s pretty good! Bayern have hammered them at times, and we usually see goals when these two meet. I can see Bayern running out easy winners, but Hoffenheim have been creating enough to suggest they can score at some point. Both Teams To Score is worth backing at 1.76.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Both Teams To Score at 1.76 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BayHff
SEVILLA V ALAVES
8pm Next we move over to La Liga to finish the evening as Sevilla host Alaves. Can we call this a relegation battle, should we? It’s fair to say that everyone expects Sevilla to stay up again, but for the time being they sit down in 16th just one point off the bottom three. Alaves are just above them with one point more; to be honest you’d be more worried about Alaves staying up this season compared to Sevilla but here we are. This is the second season in a row that Sevilla have hung around the relegation battle – Sergio Ramos was arguing with the fans recently and I just don’t know what’s going on at the club to be honest. I really felt that last season was going to be a once off after they managed to win the Europa League – that got them back into the Champions League and it was business as usual. Not so; they’ve already crashed out of Europe finishing last in their Champions League Group and now their chances of getting a European spot from La Liga are basically nil too. What a disaster for the club – it will take them years to recover from this. It looked like the top four in Spain was on lock; now Sevilla face a future of attracting less quality players and having less money to spend too. For Alaves, hanging around the relegation battle isn’t unexpected – they came up from the Segunda playoffs and their sole aim this season would have been to just stay up.
Sevilla come into the game as the odds on favourites, but there are plenty of willing layers. The home win is trading 1.95 at the time of writing with Alaves 4.7 and the draw is 3.5. Looking at the under-lining numbers, Sevilla shouldn’t be anywhere near the relegation battle. Their average xG created is 1.69 this season which is the third best attacking figure in La Liga. They have been reasonably solid at the back too but the major issue has been converting their chances and scoring goals. They are also conceding more goals than they should be, but there’s a huge difference in chances created v actual goals scored. Alaves try to keep games as tight as possible – they haven’t been giving away a huge volume of chances but their average xG of just 1.18 is quite poor. I know Sevilla have had their issues, but the 1.95 is too big here against a vert average side in Alaves. I’m not going to go crazy with the stakes given they aren’t converting their chances, but the 1.95 is cracking value. Eventually Sevilla have to start scoring!
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Sevilla to beat Alaves at 1.95 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SevAla
