FRIDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews MAINZ v UNION BERLIN and ALAVES v CADIZ both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
MAINZ V UNION BERLIN
7.30pm The European schedule is back in full swing now with the Bundesliga back, and we’re back to our usual Friday night football slot on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE with one game from the Bundesliga and one from La Liga. We have two fixtures that will have an impact on the relegation battles, and we start the evening in the Bundesliga as Mainz host Union Berlin. This is a huge game for both sides, Mainz start the weekend sitting in the relegation playoff spot and Union Berlin are just above them – three points ahead. It’s remarkable that Union Berlin find themselves in this position – they finished in the top four last season and played Real Madrid in the Champions League this season! Obviously they are the classic “too good to go down” team, but you’d have to say that they are in the relegation battle for the time being anyway – the alarm bells will definitely start ringing if they lose here too. Although they massively over-performed last season to finish in the top four, it’s still been a huge drop off. Union Berlin fans aren’t going to panic – they have a game in hand and their form is basically mid-table standard.
You’d expect Union Berlin to move up the table as the season goes on, however this game is clearly very important. It’s a sign of the times that Union Berlin come into the game as the outsiders here. Mainz are the favourites with home advantage – they are trading 2.28 with Union Berlin 3.6 and the draw is 3.4 at the time of writing. Mainz have been trying to keep games as tight as possible this season, and while that has cost them going forward their average xG conceded is the fifth best in the Bundesliga. Only the top four have a better record at the back than Mainz. At home, their average xG conceded is as low as 1.12 – however this hasn’t resulted in winning games. They’ve only managed one win all season, ironically against one of the best sides in the league in RB Leipzig here. Union Berlin opened the season with a 4-1 win over Mainz, and then followed that up with a 4-1 win over new boys Darmstadt but since then they haven’t managed to win away from home. Clearly we have two sides with major issues here, but I feel on balance the 2.28 on Mainz is worth laying. I just expect a closer game than those odds reflect, and it’s the value call.
The Ultra Says:
Two points lay (liability) Mainz to beat Union Berlin at 2.28 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MaiBer
ALAVES V CADIZ
8pm Next we go to La Liga to finish the day as Alaves host Cadiz. This is another game that’s going to have a big impact on the relegation battle. Alaves might not like being included in the relegation battle but after coming up from the Segunda playoffs their sole aim will be staying in La Liga this season. The win over Sevilla last time out was absolutely massive as it came them a five point cushion on the bottom three. Cadiz are the side that sit in 18th, and they are in major trouble this season. The three sides above them are Villarreal, Celta Vigo and Sevilla – all sides you’d be very surprised if they went down. Cadiz only have an average xG created of 0.87 this season which is the worst attacking figure in La Liga – to make matters worse for them the only other two sides with an average xG under 1.0 are sitting just inside the top half of the table, I can’t see either Valencia or Las Palmas getting involved in the relegation battle given where they are in the table. Not only have Cadiz been poor going forward, they have been poor at the back too – their average xG conceded is 1.6 which is the third worst defensive figure in the league. Alaves have kept their games reasonably tight, and they are effectively creating what they are conceding – the xG difference between going forward and at the back is only -0.02.
When you put everything together, Cadiz are the worst performing side in La Liga this season. Their performance figure is -0.73, and the next worst is -0.58 which is a fair distance away really numbers wise. It’s no surprise that Alaves come into the game as the favourites, and they are currently odds on at 1.87 with Cadiz 5.2 and the draw is 3.45. Most of Alaves’ problems this season have come away from home – at home they have been very solid at the back, and that could easily prove to be the difference here. Alaves average xG conceded at home is only 1.14 – compare this to the Cadiz attacking figure away from home at only 0.76 which is a very poor figure. Cadiz did manage to beat Alaves 1-0 on the opening weekend of the season, but they haven’t managed a win since the 1st of September. Plus they haven’t managed a win away from home all season. The 1.87 is ten ticks too big on Alaves in my opinion, and it’s worth a confident bet in my opinion.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Alaves to beat Cadiz at 1.87 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AlvCad
