FRIDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews EINTRACHT FRANKFURT v MAINZ and ALMERIA v ALAVES both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
EINTRACHT FRANKFURT V MAINZ
7.30pm We have our usual Friday night football slot from Europe on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE with one fixture from the Bundesliga and one from La Liga. We start the night in the Bundesliga as Eintracht Frankfurt host Mainz. We have two sides from opposite ends of the table here with Eintracht Frankfurt coming into this weekend sitting in sixth and pushing for a European spot while Mainz start the weekend sitting in the relegation playoff spot. The weather robbed us of a huge relegation battle last weekend between Mainz and Union Berlin so they both have a game in hand on the other sides around them. The reality is though is that Mainz are in big trouble – you’d have to expect Union Berlin to move up the table as the season goes on; they did finish in the top four last season after all. Bochum are the next side ahead of Mainz and after a win at the weekend for them, there’s a nine point gap between Bochum and Mainz which is a huge gap even with two games in hand for Mainz considering how much they have struggled to get wins this season. If you just look at the table you could say Eintracht Frankfurt will be fully expected to win this one, but the under-lining numbers might suggest a different story.
I have to say this is going to be a fascinating game and market. Eintracht Frankfurt might sit in sixth place, but they actually have the lowest average xG created in the Bundesliga – their average xG created is only 0.95 and they are massively over-performing in front of goal. They are one of the biggest over-performing side in the Bundesliga this season, so while Mainz might sit in the bottom three Eintracht Frankfurt still don’t come into the game as the odds on favourites. The home win is trading 2.06 at the time of writing with Mainz 3.85 and the draw is 3.75. Frankfurt are conceding more than they are creating, while for Mainz they are marginally creating more than they are conceding but they are really struggling in front of goal. They are scoring less than a goal a game on average this season and that is why they sit down in the relegation battle. However, it’s hard to commit to the lay of Frankfurt given Mainz just haven’t been getting results this season. Frankfurt have struggled to create chances but Mainz aren’t scoring goals this season – Under 2.5 goals looks a nice position at 1.91 in my opinion.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.91 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/EinMai
ALMERIA V ALAVES
8pm We move to La Liga to finish Friday night as Almeria host Alaves. This is another fixture that involved sides in a relegation battle. Unfortunately for Almeria, they are nailed to the bottom of La Liga and with just six points from 21 games their chance of staying up are pretty much gone. It was take a remarkable run of form to see them even get back into the mix to stay up. Their hearts must be broken after last weekend too; they took a 2-0 lead away to Real Madrid but ended up losing 3-2 to an injury time winner. Obviously they weren’t expected to get anything at Real Madrid but it’s a cruel way to lose; granted it’s what the big sides do. Alaves would have been in the relegation conversation this season too after coming up from the Segunda playoffs however they have put back-to-back wins together against Sevilla and Cadiz to move up the table. That’s given them a nice eight point cushion on the bottom three starting this weekend. You wouldn’t be concerned about Alaves performance levels either; they are creating exactly what they are conceding and that pretty much puts them in mid-table. While Almeria haven’t been the worst side going forward, all their issues have been at the back. They are conceding over two goals per game on average and as the saying goes – you don’t win many games when you concede two goals! They are conceding more goals than they should be, but their average xG conceded is still the second highest in La Liga.
We have an exceptionally open market here. Almeria come into the game as the favourites with home advantage, but it’s a very open market and you wouldn’t be surprised to see the odds bounce around. Almeria trade 2.72 with Alaves 2.9 and the draw is 3.35 at the time of writing. Alaves won 1-0 when the sides met earlier in the season, and they deserved to win that game too. They have been much better at home this season though, and you would have to say Almeria have played better football at home too despite not getting many results! Almeria are still waiting for their first win of the La Liga season. I wasn’t surprised to see such an open betting heat in the match odds market, but I was surprised to see Over 2.5 goals trading as high as 2.36 when I clicked into the market. I know we only saw one goal when the sides met earlier in the season, but the xG figure for Alaves was very close to 2.0 and then Almeria have been so poor at the back this season too. I expect goals here, and the 2.36 is too big to ignore on Overs.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Over 2.5 goals at 2.36 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AlmAla
