FRIDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews HOFFENHEIM v RB LEIPZIG and GETAFE v ATHLETIC BILBAO both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
HOFFENHEIM V RB LEIPZIG
7.30pm Friday night football from Europe on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE comes from the Bundesliga and La Liga! We have two fascinating markets with RB Leipzig and Athletic Bilbao both away from home – two massive games for those sides as well. We kick off the evening in the Bundesliga with Hoffenheim hosting RB Leipzig. It’s been a very good run for RB Leipzig coming into this game, and after a win last weekend against their top four rivals Dortmund they can’t afford to slip up now. They came back from the winter break with a six point lead over Dortmund only to fall behind, but they are back in a very positive position now with a five point advantage over Dortmund – plus not forgetting that Dortmund have a Champions League Semi-Final to focus on! RB Leipzig come into this game as the odds on favourites at 1.52 with Hoffenheim 6.0 and the draw is 5.5 at the time of writing. Hoffenheim have been your classic mid-table Bundesliga side this season, but there have been some massive red flags in their under-lining numbers that they should be worried about with a view to next season. It will be interesting how many changes we see in the summer.
Hoffenheim have an average xG conceded of 1.83 which is the worst defensive figure in the Bundesliga this season. Not only have they been leaking loads of chances, they have also been sloppy because their actual goals conceded per game average is over two. What has them sitting in mid-table this season is that they are hugely over-performing in front of goal. Their actual goals scored average is 1.77 – not far away from their conceded – but their average xG created is only 1.4. When they stop scoring from awkward angles they are in big trouble. RB Leipzig haven’t been good enough to even challenge the top two this season, but they have been a very solid top four side; they deserve to be where they are. They have the third best attacking figure and the third best defensive figure – I feel the 1.52 is a very nice price on Leipzig. You have one of the best attacking sides in the league against the worst defence. I’d have Leipzig sub 1.5 and I’m very happy to a five star NAP on the away win.
The Ultra Says:
Five points win RB Leipzig to beat Hoffenheim at 1.52 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/HofRbl
GETAFE V ATHLETIC BILBAO
8pm Next we move over to La Liga to finish Friday night as Getafe host Athletic Bilbao. Although we saw some incredible scenes for Bilbao as they won the Copa del Rey; unfortunately their top four challenge is very close to being over. I know any European spot is a superb result for Bilbao considering that they had just missed out on Europe by one spot for the last two seasons, but they did have a real shot at that fourth spot. Unfortunately for them, four games without a win has left them six points behind Atletico Madrid. The hammer blow was last weekend with a 3-1 loss away to Atletico! There’s still plenty of time left in La Liga this season; five matchdays are left but it’s very hard to see that gap being turned around. All Bilbao can do is win every game and see what happens; I wouldn’t say that Atletico have a difficult fixture list either. Athletic Bilbao come into this game as the favourites at 2.28 with Getafe 3.7 and the draw is 3.35 at the time of writing. Getafe will be absolutely delighted with their mid-table position considering that they were involved in the relegation battle last season, their success this season has been built on some very strong home form.
It’s easy to understand why Bilbao are odds against here; Getafe are up as high as eighth in the home form table and they have been a lot more solid at the back with home advantage too. They have consistently leaked chances away from home; their average xG conceded away is 1.57 but this drops to a very respectable 1.21 at home. Bilbao have struggled away from home too; they have created way less chances. Their average xG created at home is 1.73 and this drops to 1.26 away from home – that’s quite a difference and that figure is only marginally above their away conceded at 1.23. Home advantage is going to be a key factor here; I know Bilbao have played some excellent football this season, and this is a must win game for them to still give themselves a small chance of that fourth spot but I do feel that the 2.28 is a few ticks too short here. Getafe have been so solid at home, and they can get a result – the value option looks a Bilbao lay in my opinion.
The Ultra Says:
Two points lay (liability) Athletic Bilbao to beat Getafe at 2.28 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/GetBil
