FRIDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews KOLN v BAYERN MUNICH and PSG v MONACO both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
KOLN V BAYERN MUNICH
7.30pm Domestic football returns on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE after the International break! We have a cracking Friday night ahead with Bayern Munich and PSG both in action. We did have a couple of International breaks quite close together over the last few weeks, and now we finally get a good run at the domestic season. The next International break will be in March 2024. We kick off the action in the Bundesliga as Koln host Bayern Munich. There are two sides rising above everyone else at the moment – Bayer Leverkusen top the table and Bayern Munich are two points behind them. The gap is growing to the rest with the likes of RB Leipzig and Dortmund dropping points over the last couple of matchdays. You’d have to expect Bayern to go past Leverkusen and take over at some stage, but for the time being we have an interesting title race. Indeed, the only points Leverkusen have dropped this season was a draw against Bayern! Koln are sitting at the opposite end of the table, they sat in the relegation zone over the International break – they’ve only managed six points from 11 games and the general feeling here will be that this should be an easy win for Bayern.
The market agrees – Bayern are trading as short as 1.27 at the time of writing with Koln 11.5 if you fancy a shock, while the draw is trading 7.4. Despite being two points behind Leverkusen, Bayern have been the best side in the Bundesliga this season. Their average xG created is a whopping 2.34 – one of the best figures around Europe’s major leagues, and they are also the only side in the Bundesliga conceding an average xG of under 1.0. It’s hard to see past a Bayern win here – there’s no prizes for tipping 1.27 shots but I would recommend Bayern for any Acca this weekend. Koln have been playing an exceptionally open game, and they are conceding an average xG of 1.61. That’s not the worst figure in the Bundesliga, but it is pretty average. The market is expecting goals here with Over 2.5 goals as short as 1.31, and I feel Bayern can cover the handicap too. Bayern are trading 1.7 -1.5 goals and that looks cracking value considering how open Koln have been this season – at 1.7 I feel we’re getting so much value I’m happy with a Max Bet!
The Ultra Says:
Five points win Bayern Munich -1.5 goals to beat Koln at 1.7 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/KolBay
PSG V MONACO
8pm Next we move to Ligue 1 for a cracker as PSG host Monaco. This is one of the best fixtures in France, despite Monaco bouncing around the table in recent years. It’s actually hard to believe they went from second in 2017/18 to 17th in 2018/19 – just one spot away from relegation trouble! They were back in European spots by 2020/21 but after finishing outside the top five last season, they are aiming for Champions League football this season. There’s a little gap forming with the top three of PSG, Nice and Monaco – PSG clearly haven’t been at their best this season but such is the gulf in class between PSG and the rest of Ligue 1 they find themselves sitting top of the table anyway. They only went top the matchday prior to the International break with Nice and Monaco both dropping points. With Messi and Neymar leaving during the summer, and Mbappe leaving next summer, PSG are currently going through a much needed reset. They’ve always had dressing room issues in Paris, and they need a united team rather than big stars without much behind them. Even with the best front three in the world, they were found out time and time again at a high level for having no real midfield behind them. Of course as always, the Champions League is the acid test for PSG given the level in France.
Based on the under-lining numbers, these are the top two teams in France. PSG have an average xG created of 2.01 and Monaco are second best with 1.73. They have both been solid at the back too – Monaco have actually been marginally better. Their average xG conceded is only 1.15 while PSG’s figure is 1.22. Nice have been the best side at the back in France, but those two figures are still very good. We should have a high quality game here, and as you would expect PSG are the favourites with home advantage. They come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.51 with Monaco 6.4 and the draw is 5.3. Monaco have a good recent record against PSG – two wins and a draw from their last three meetings. The last time they came here it was a 1-1 draw, and PSG have actually created marginally more away from home this season. I’m going to keep stakes small here because PSG are a fantastic side, but I do feel that the 1.51 is too short. Monaco have been playing to a decent level this season, and I expect a closer game than the odds suggest.
The Ultra Says:
Two points lay (liability) PSG to beat Monaco at 1.51 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/PsgMco
