EURO QUALIFIERS: The Ultra previews GREECE v REPUBLIC OF IRELAND, MALTA v ENGLAND, WALES v ARMENIA and DENMARK v NORTHERN IRELAND all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
GREECE V REPUBLIC OF IRELAND
7.45pm The focus switches from the Nations League to Euro 2024 qualifying on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE on Friday as we have the final International break of the 2022/23 season. We have a very busy night ahead with the Republic of Ireland, England, Wales and Northern Ireland all in action. We kick the night off in Group B with Greece hosting the Republic of Ireland. Greece got off to an easy start in this Group with a win over Gibraltar while Ireland lost against France. Ireland are a very average side these days, and it’s been a while since they have had any success. They lack a star player, and their list of Premier League players has been getting smaller and smaller recently. Manager Stephen Kenny has focused on youth and even turned to the League of Ireland to bring players through. That’s a very low standard, but the hope is that they somehow get back to competing for major tournaments again. Unfortunately for Ireland fans, that seems to be a while away yet – although UEFA and FIFA are only going to be increasing the number of sides at major tournaments in years to come because they get more money!
Greece come into this game as the clear favourites, but they aren’t odds on. The home win is 2.2 at the time of writing with Republic of Ireland 3.85 and the draw is 3.15. Being away from home definitely suits this Irish side better – it has for a number of years to be honest – they are under less pressure to hold onto the ball and they are happy to play counter attacking football. When sides sit back against them, they really struggle to create chances but they play better when sides are attacking them – and that is generally the case away from home. Greece have made a lot of improvement in recent years, the odds reflect that, and they won promotion in the 2022/23 Nations League to a B Group while Ireland were more focused on avoiding relegation from a B Group! Greece kept things very tight away from home in the Nations League, but they were a lot more open at home. I know Ireland aren’t fantastic going forward, but I feel Over 2.5 goals is worth a small bet at 2.5 here. It seems the market is expecting a cagey affair, and there’s a little value in Overs in my opinion – this is definitely a game for small stakes however.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Over 2.5 goals at 2.5 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/GreIre
MALTA V ENGLAND
7.45pm Next we move to Group C as England travel to take on Malta. This is a question how many goals will England score rather than will they win – they are currently trading as short as 1.05 at the time of writing! Believe it or not, that’s not actually the shortest price of the night – that title goes to France who are 1.01 to beat Gibraltar and you can’t go shorter than that! England are in the box seat in this Group after beating Italy 2-1 in March – it was always going to be between them who would top the Group, and winning 2-1 away from home was the perfect start for England. I’m sure all the talk heading into this game will be about the Manchester City players reporting for England duty, but to be honest I doubt Gareth Southgate is going to name his stronger XI here. This game is about viewing the fringe players and getting the job done. Malta have started qualifying with two losses, away to North Macedonia and then at home against Italy. That’s obviously an interesting score line considering the focus here will be on the goals and handicap markets. Italy scored their two goals within the opening 30 minutes and were probably just happy to see how the game then.
I don’t think the England XI will have that mentality. You’ll have players pushing for places in the main starting XI here. The market is expecting plenty of goals with Over 2.5 goals trading as short as 1.27 – all those goals are expected to come from England too! Any Other Away Win (England to score four or more goals and win) is odds on in the Correct Score market. England went unbeaten in World Cup 2022 qualifying, and they finished with score lines of 5-0, 4-0, 4-0, 5-0, 5-0 and 10-0 (against poor San Marino). Malta were able to beat San Marino in the last Nations League, but those two wins were all they could manage losing to Estonia twice in a D Group. There’s a huge gulf in class between the sides here, and I feel the 1.87 is a nice price on Any Other Away Win. An early goal should see the floodgates over, and I can’t see England easing off like Italy did.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Any Other Away Win Correct Score at 1.87 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MalEng
WALES V ARMENIA
7.45pm We have a must win game for Wales next as they host Armenia. Wales are going to have to fight tooth and nail in this Group – it’s likely Croatia will take one of the top two spots so that leaves Wales and Turkey battling it out for the final spot. Turkey aren’t under as much pressure as Wales because they are assured of a playoff spot thanks to the Nations League. Wales had a complete blowout in the Nations League – they only managed one point and got relegated from an A Group. In fairness to Wales, they had an extremely tough Group with Netherlands, Belgium and Poland in it. It’s an interesting situation for Wales in the Nations League to be honest – they are probably too good for a B Group and too limited for an A Group. I would suggest they’ll bounce up and down a few times over the coming years. They would probably prefer the B Group because they’ll top it and get at least a playoff when it comes around to qualifying for the Euros. Armenia got relegated from a B Group with only one win from their six games – at home against a poor Republic of Ireland side.
Wales will be fully expected to win this game, and they are trading heavy odds on favourites at the time of writing. The home win is 1.42, with Armenia 8.8 and the draw is 5.2. Armenia also got a reasonably average World cup qualifying Group and finished behind North Macedonia and Romania there – Germany were always going to top that Group! Wales face into an uncertain future after Gareth Bale retired, and they might lack goals coming forward. They relied on Bale for producing some magic countless times. I feel Wales will get the job done here, and I couldn’t put anyone off taking the 1.42. However, I expect Armenia to put XI men behind the ball and try to make this game as boring as possible. Under 2.5 goals is a nice price at 2.12, and while I’m going to keep stakes limited I do like the 2.12. I’d have it marginally odds on, and I expect Wales to grind out a 1-0 or 2-0 win. Without Bale though, you wouldn’t be totally surprised to see a 0-0 – that might be an option for a very small value bet at 16.0+ too!
The Ultra Says:
One point win Under 2.5 goals at 2.12 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/WalArm
DENMARK V NORTHERN IRELAND
7.45pm We finish Friday night in Group H with Denmark hosting Northern Ireland. When the Groups first came out, you would have thought Denmark were certain to top this Group – indeed, they would have been delighted with the draw. They got off to a winning start, but then produced a shock loss to Kazakhstan in March which has obviously made things very interesting for the time being! You’d still expect Denmark to top the Group, but Slovenia were going to be their main danger, and they have started with two wins to top the Group. Finland and Northern Ireland have both started with one loss and one win, and they are in the unfortunate position of not having a playoff spot to fall back on like Kazakhstan from the Nations League. Northern Ireland have never enjoyed their time in the Nations League, it actually took them until September 2022 to finally win a Nations League game! They beat Kosovo with home advantage, and you’d expect them to struggle here.
On paper, there’s definitely a little gulf in class between the sides and Denmark come into the game as the heavy odds on favourites. They are trading 1.3 at the time of writing with Northern Ireland 13.5 and the draw is 6.0. I know losing to Kazakhstan was a big shock for Denmark, but generally Northern Ireland have been pretty average away from home. All their better performances have been when they have home advantage, and I can’t see past the Denmark win here. The goals market is interesting here with Over/Under 2.5 goals close to 2.0 either side of the book. I’d fully expect Northern Ireland to put XI men behind the ball here and play for a draw – that will make the game very cagey. Under 2.5 goals is trading 2.0 while Denmark to cover the 1.5 goal handicap is 1.92. On balance, I prefer the Under 2.5 goals bet at 2.0 – once again this is a game for small stakes.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Under 2.5 goals at 2.0 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/DenNir
