FRIDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews FIORENTINA v NAPOLI with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
FIORENTINA V NAPOLI
7.45pm Friday night football on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE this week comes from Serie A as Fiorentina host Napoli. It’s the final weekend in the Bundesliga, and we also had a midweek round of fixtures from La Liga so Serie A is the only action we have from Europe on Friday! Serie A is actually one of the rare elite leagues that don’t play the final fixtures all at the same time, which I feel is actually better – they just break it up on the final weekend and play what fixtures impact each other at the same time. Anyway, this should be a good game between two side who sit right beside each other in the table, and we have a very open betting heat too.
Fiorentina are the favourites with home advantage at 2.66 while Napoli are 2.83 and the draw is 3.55 at the time of writing. I have to say I have found the Napoli situation in Serie A this season one of the most fascinating from Europe. They are heading into the final two matchdays sitting in mid-table with no chance of getting European football. They are a whopping 41 points behind title winners Inter Milan. That is incredible, considering they have a better average xG created than Inter Milan! Napoli have an average xG created of 1.87 which is the best attacking figure in Serie A this season. They also have the third best defensive figure with an average xG conceded of 1.14, and when you put those two figures together Napoli are, on paper, the best performing side in Italy this season.
It’s remarkable that they sit in mid-table. So, what’s gone wrong? It’s been well documented this season that they have majorly struggled in front of goal. They just haven’t converted their chances and at the end of the day, football is about putting the ball into the back of the net. Not only are Napoli under-performing in front of goal, it’s been a similar story at the back too – they are conceding more goals than they should be. This market is interesting because Fiorentina have the second best defensive figure in Serie A this season, and they have been top class at home this season too. Fiorentina haven’t dropped many points this season, and they have mostly been against top teams too.
They have an average xG created of 1.70 at home while only conceding an average of 1.09. Very impressive figures, and obviously the big question here is what can we expect from Napoli? I have been through the thought process a few times this season – but at what point do we just assume that Napoli won’t take their chances. That’s been the great question when considering whether or not to back Napoli this season. While Fiorentina have a game in hand, they have little chance of a European spot as well as Napoli. I feel we might have a more open game than usual here with both sides having no major reason to sit back and be negative. However, Over 2.5 goals is trading odds on. I feel the value play is the draw at 3.55. There really isn’t much between the sides with Fiorentina having home advantage, and we should have a very close game here.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Draw at 3.55 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/FioNpo
