BUNDESLIGA FRIDAY: Our new European football tipster The Ultra previews HOFFENHEIM v RB LEIPZIG on Friday. The service is now showing a profit of 22% on investment since it began – don’t miss the next recommended BETDAQ bet.
The Ultra is a professional football trader with over ten years experience betting on European football. He has gladly agreed to do a weekly column on BETDAQ Tips where you can get all his latest bets.
The Ultra has a staking system between one and five points, with five points for only his most confident bets in Europe. He loves looking at the stats before each game and especially enjoys using xG (Expected Goals) to make a profit.
HOFFENHEIM V RB LEIPZIG
7.30pm The Bundesliga returns on Friday night with another round of fixtures and I have a confident bet on Hoffenheim v RB Leipzig. Hoffenheim raised many football pundit eyebrows during the week when they sacked their manager having won eight points from their last 12 available. Those are the kind of decisions that fans get angry about and pundits say “the game is gone.” xG tells a different story.
Hoffenheim were playing very poorly and the results weren’t reflecting that. Most club owners have someone running the analytics these days and they would have known how badly they were performing on xG. They currently sit in 7th position only a couple of points behind Wolfsburg but xG has them down in 13th and they took the decision to act now rather than wait until the break or next season. It was the right decision looking at the numbers.
The numbers also say that RB Leipzig win here and 1.47 is excellent value. Leipzig have had some disappointing results at home recently but they have been on fire away from home. They have only conceded 15 goals, in line with xG too, in 15 away games this season but since returning from lockdown they have generated an xG of nearly 8. They have slightly performed better, scoring 9 and their attacking intent has been excellent.
This game also screams goals as both sides are showing an xG of nearly 4 – Hoffenheim at home and Leipzig away however where the game can be won is Leipzig are far better going forward and at the back. Hoffenheim have an xG of over 2 at home which is very poor while Leipzig are only conceding 1 goal away from home. Leipzig have an xG away of over 2.5 as well. I expect goals, and perhaps a little improvement in Hoffenheim since they sacked their manager but it’s a Leipzig win at 1.47 all the way for me. If it wasn’t for the change in manager from Hoffenheim, it would qualify as a max bet. As it is, it’s just a very confident Friday night bet!
The Ultra Says:
Four points RB Leipzig to beat Hoffenheim at 1.47 with BETDAQ Exchange.
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