LA LIGA FRIDAY: The Ultra previews LEVANTE v ALAVES with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
LEVANTE V ALAVES
8pm Friday Night Football from Europe on Betdaq Betting Exchange comes from La Liga this week as Levante host Alaves! We’ve had a massive week of Champions League and Europa League action, and while this might not be the most glamorous tie of the week, we do have an interesting betting heat – plus it’s a massive game for both sides relegation wise. Alaves have got a lot of results recently and although they come into the matchday sitting in 14th, they are still only three points off the relegation zone. Levante are under immense pressure though – they sit in 19th and they are getting a little adrift from everyone now. You could call this a must win game for them, especially with home advantage.
Anything bar a win here for Levante and they will be going straight back down after winning promotion last summer. It’s no surprise that we have an open betting heat here – with home advantage, Levante are the marginal favourites at 2.72 with Alaves 3.0 and the draw is 3.2 at the time of writing. When you look at the underlying numbers, it’s easy to see why Levante are in trouble. Their average xG created is just 1.15, which is the third worst attacking figure in La Liga, and their average xG conceded of 1.82 is the worst defensive figure – conceding close to two goals and only scoring one per game is hardly going to get you many results! Those are relegation numbers, and show difficult their season has been.
Alaves are in a much more comfortable position when you look at the xG numbers; but they aren’t out of the relegation woods yet. Their average xG created of 1.32 is a reasonable mid-table figure – not impressive but a classic mid-table La Liga figure. Their average xG conceded of 1.38 is also perfectly solid – again a mid-table figure. I would say that they shouldn’t be involved in the relegation battle, but three points isn’t a comfortable cushion to have, but as the season goes on you can easily see them sitting in that mid-to-low table range without being in too much danger of going down. I do feel the result here is massive for both sides – as I said anything bar a win for the home side sees them nailed on to go down, and a loss for Alaves probably sees them get dragged into the relegation battle for the next few weeks.
From a pure numbers perspective, Alaves look the more reliable side – they are creating more, conceding fewer chances and have a solid look to them compared to Levante. It’s hard to be positive about Levante when they are conceding so many chances. Alaves have the tools to exploit that. I’d actually have Alaves a shade shorter than the market here, and the 3.0 looks a shade of value – even with home advantage I just can’t have Levante as the favourites here. This is definitely a game for small stakes, and while I couldn’t put anyone off the Levante lay to have the draw on your side too, I’m happy with a small bet on Alaves at the odds.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Alaves to beat Levante at 3.0 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LLLeAl
