SERIE A FRIDAY: The Ultra previews PISA v AC MILAN with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
PISA V AC MILAN
7.45pm Friday Night Football from Europe on Betdaq Betting Exchange comes from Serie A this week! Pisa host AC Milan in a clash that most football fans will be expecting AC Milan to win given how much Pisa have struggled this season. Pisa are having a desperately tough time back in the top flight after earning promotion from Serie B last summer – they currently sit 19th in the table with just 15 points from 24 games. One win all season is obviously a grim stat, but from a betting point of view it’s key to note that they have grinded out 12 draws. AC Milan come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.55 with Pisa 7.6 and the draw is 4.4 at the time of writing.
AC Milan are trying to hang in there in the title race with Inter Milan, but the writing seems to be on the wall there given how good Inter Milan have been playing. The writing also seems on the wall for Pisa going back down too. This looks a mismatch when you look at the underlying numbers. Pisa’s numbers make for very grim reading. Their average xG created is just 1.14 per game which is in the bottom four attacking figures in Serie A – they’ve also been poor at the back. Their average xG conceded is 1.69 which is the second worst defensive figure in the league – you can see why they are in the relegation zone! You also have to say that they are becoming a little adrift now; they go into this matchday six points off Lecce in 17th.
The one game Pisa won this season came here against Cremonese, who have the worst attacking and worst defensive figure in Serie A, but somehow have grinded out enough results to not be in the relegation zone. It’s very difficult to see past an AC Milan win here. The gulf in class is quite big – I was actually a little surprised to see AC Milan trading as big as 1.55 when I clicked into the market. Obviously the concern from a betting point of view is how many draws Pisa have managed this season, and also AC Milan haven’t exactly been blowing teams away with an average xG created of 1.52. That’s only the sixth best attacking figure in Serie A, and you can see why most xG fans are expecting Inter Milan to go away at the top of the table.
It’s worth looking at the goals market here – Pisa are very limited in attack and they will obviously set up to be very negative here. They almost certainly will look to grind out another draw – but the matchdays are slipping by week by week and surely they have to start pushing the boat out for some wins given their place in the table. Under 2.5 goals is trading 1.97 and that does make some appeal. However, I do feel the AC Milan bet stands out as the best value here at 1.55 – I’d have them sub 1.5 to beat a very poor Pisa side, and I’m happy with a confident bet to start the weekend.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win AC Milan to beat Pisa at 1.55 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SAPiAc
