LA LIGA FRIDAY: The Ultra previews RAYO VALLECANO v ELCHE with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
8pm Domestic football returns on Betdaq Betting Exchange! Friday Night Football comes from La Liga as Rayo Vallecano host Elche. It might not have the glamour of a title race clash, but it’s great to have domestic football back – it was been quite a boring International Break. Obviously we’ve had some massive World Cup Qualifiers, but there hasn’t been much action to enjoy with the number of games quite small. We have some huge games coming up from all around Europe this week.
Rayo Vallecano come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.81 with Elche 5.1 and the draw is 3.75 at the time of writing. Both sides have been lacklustre this season – that’s easily the best way to describe them. Rayo Vallecano currently sit 14th in La Liga with 32 points from 29 matches, which is a fairly comfortable distance from the bottom three on the face of it but it’s only four points off the relegation zone which means they are looking over their shoulders returning from the International Break. The Conference League has been a welcome distraction, and they can be proud of their European adventure – Rayo head into the quarter-finals of the UEFA Conference League on the back of a commanding 3-1 aggregate win over Samsunspor – but domestically it has been a real slog.
While you might include Rayo Vallecano in the relegation battle just because the cushion is only four points, you simply have to include Elche. They had gone eleven games without a win before beating Mallorca 2-1 before the International Break – ironically their win prior to that run was 4-0 against Rayo Vallecano! They are just one point above the drop zone though, and obviously under immense pressure. Elche are playing better football than their position; obviously they are an average side but Elche’s average xG created of 1.31 is the twelfth best attacking figure in La Liga; hardly relegation standard. Their average xG conceded of 1.57 is the fifth worst defensive figure in La Liga, but not exceptionally bad.
Rayo Vallecano haven’t been getting the results they deserve this season either. Their average xG created of 1.49 is the joint sixth best attacking figure in La Liga – a genuinely solid output, and they should be in the top half of the table. Their average xG conceded of 1.38 is in the top half of the table too – what has gone wrong this season is they haven’t been converting their chances. They’ve been woeful in front of goal, scoring less than a goal a game on average. It’s hard to have a lot of confidence in them with that in mind considering they are the odds on favourites here. The thing is, Elche do not inspire confidence here – Elche have lost ten of their fourteen away fixtures in La Liga, and that away record is simply dreadful. They sit bottom of the away form table.
It’s hard to get away from the Rayo Vallecano win here, but the 1.81 doesn’t jump off the page as good value in my opinion. Rayo are the better side on the underlying numbers, playing at home, and Elche’s away form is genuinely woeful. I think this game has the hallmarks of a Rayo win, but a tight, edgy one. Under 2.5 goals is trading 1.92 and at a bigger price than the Rayo Vallecano win, I feel that offers more value. You wouldn’t be surprised to see a 0-0 here either given how many times Rayo have fluffed their lines this season.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.92 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LLRaEl
