FRIDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews FROSINONE v INTER MILAN and ALAVES v GIRONA both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
FROSINONE V INTER MILAN
7.45pm Friday night football on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE comes from Serie A and La Liga this week with two very interesting markets. We have two favourites away from home, and while there is definitely a gulf in class between the sides you can find reasons to take on the favourites. We kick off the evening with Frosinone and Inter Milan – we have the title winners against a side in the relegation battle here and on paper this should be an easy win for Inter. However, they confirmed their title win against AC Milan a couple of weeks ago and they could easily be on the beach early. They lost 1-0 away to Sassuolo last weekend – that was an absolutely massive result for Sassuolo who are sitting in the relegation zone. It really threw them a life line when they badly needed it, and obviously it’s a complete bonus to pick up points against Inter too. Frosinone will be hoping for a similar result here – they start the game two points away from the relegation zone. While they have a better goal difference than the sides around them, that isn’t a major factor anymore with the new rule of a relegation playoff in Serie A now. Inter were definitely a little lacklustre away last weekend, and it will be interesting to see how they play here.
They finished last weekend with an xG of only 1.25. Considering their average xG created this season is 1.79 that was definitely a sub-par performance. We have had a lot of sides recently win the title in Italy and switch off when it hasn’t gone to the wire – Napoli did it last year! Juventus massively did it in 2019/20. I wouldn’t be rushing to back Inter at odds on here, even with the gulf in class between the sides. Inter Milan come into the game trading 1.67 with Frosinone 5.2 and the draw is 4.6 at the time of writing. Frosinone have a mid-table level of chances created, but all their issues have been at the back – they have the fourth worst average xG conceded in Serie A this season. They have battled really hard in recent weeks though; they are unbeaten in their last six games and although they’ve only managed one win that’s not a bad run. I feel the jury is out on the motivation levels for Inter here, and the 1.67 feels a little short. However, Frosinone are going to try keep this game as tight as possible and Under 2.5 goals looks a better option at 2.54 – I expected that to be trading much shorter!
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 2.54 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/FroInt
ALAVES V GIRONA
8pm We move over to La Liga to finish Friday night as Alaves host Girona. It was a massive weekend for Girona last week as they beat Barcelona 4-2 (again!) to move into second spot. That win has come at a good time considering they had been dropping a lot of points lately – but most of those games have come away from home. They have lost five of their last six away games, and that’s definitely going to be the major worry here if you’re considering backing Girona. They come into the game as the favourites, but they aren’t odds on. Girona are trading 2.08 with Alaves 3.95 and the draw is 3.7 at the time of writing. While Girona have been flying high this season, there have been some red flags in their under-lining numbers. Their away performance level is definitely one of those – away from home they are conceding an average xG of 1.57 which is very high for a top four club. It’s also higher than the chances they are creating, and that brings obvious problems. It’s been hard to knock Girona this season – they have been a breath of fresh air in La Liga, but if they are going to stay in the top four next season then they need to improve.
That have been massively over-performing in front of goal too. Their average xG created is 1.48 which is outside the top four, but they are actually scoring over two goals per game on average. They’re only marginally behind Real Madrid for goals scored which is impressive! Alaves are towards the opposite end of the table – they will be delighted to be sitting in mid-table with an average xG created of only 1.15 which isn’t far off relegation standard. They have been exceptionally solid at the back, and that is what has given them their spot in the table – they are actually in the top four for goals conceded this season which is very impressive considering they came up from the Segunda playoffs this season. With Girona not creating as much away from home and Alaves so solid at the back, Under 2.5 goals jumps off the page here at 2.06. I was really surprised to see it trading odds against, and I feel it’s worth a confident bet at the odds.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Under 2.5 goals at 2.06 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AlaGir
