FRIDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews TORINO v CAGLIARI and LAS PALMAS v OSASUNA both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
TORINO V CAGLIARI
7.45pm Friday night football on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE comes from Serie A and La Liga this week. We might not have the same quality as midweek with some massive Champions League games, but we do have two interesting markets. We kick off the action in Serie A as Torino host Cagliari – so far this season these two have been keeping away from the relegation battle but they have been playing quite poor football. Torino coming into the weekend sitting four points away from the bottom three with Cagliari only two. Both clubs should be safe, because the bottom two look nailed on to go down this season, however obviously there are a lot of clubs involved in the battle to avoid that final spot. Torino come into the game as the favourites with home advantage – they are trading 2.2 with Cagliari 4.1 and the draw is 3.3 at the time of writing. Both sides have been very limited going forward this season – Torino only have an average xG created of 1.08 and while Cagliari are a little above that at 1.27, they haven’t been taking those chances. Their actual goals scored average is only 1.1.
Obviously home advantage is a big factor is games when you have two limited sides, but I wouldn’t be rushing to back Torino here at 2.2. They have managed two more points compared to Cagliari but they have been playing worse football. Both sides have exceptionally similar average xG conceded figures – there’s only 0.01 between them. They are both in the bottom seven on defensive figures; so far this season Cagliari have been sloppy whereas Torino have been conceding under their xG. I wouldn’t put anyone off a Torino lay from a value point of view, but I feel this game screams Under 2.5 goals. That’s trading 1.7 and I really expected that to be shorter – maybe in the high 1.5’s given how limited both sides have been going forward. Both Teams Not To Score is trading 1.94 which another nice option, but I marginally prefer the Unders bet. I feel at 1.7 we’re getting enough value for a confident three point stake.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.7 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/TorCag
LAS PALMAS V OSASUNA
8pm We move over to La Liga to finish Friday night football from Europe, and we have another interesting market here as Las Palmas host Osasuna. A lot of football fans would have expected Las Palmas to really struggle this season based on their performance levels last season, but they have been grinding out a lot of results and come into this matchday with a three point cushion over the relegation zone. Osasuna sit comfortably in mid-table, but that’s nothing new – they are your classic mid-table La Liga side! We have an open betting heat – Las Palmas are the favourites at 2.56 with Osasuna 3.2 and the draw is 3.25 at the time of writing. Las Palmas being the favourites here might surprise a few but Osasuna have been very poor going forward this season. They have an average xG created of 1.15 which is the fifth worst attacking figure in La Liga this season – Las Palmas have been creating marginally more chances with a figure of 1.2, but obviously both are pretty poor attacking figures. From that point of view it’s easy to see why we have an open betting heat.
It’s hard to have a lot of faith in either side here. Osasuna have been better at the back, but again both sides have pretty average defensive figures. Osasuna have an average xG conceded of 1.41 with Las Palmas higher at 1.58 – that 1.58 is the worst defensive figure in La Liga this season, while Osasuna are in the bottom seven. It’s fair to say that both sides have been very average this season; possibly understandable to see Las Palmas as the favourites from that point of view with home advantage. This game is tricky – you’d want to be on Under 2.5 goals on their attacking figures but they’re so poor at the back you’d want to be on Overs! Under 2.5 goals is the favourite at 1.75, and it’s not a surprise to see a very even market on Both Teams To Score. I feel we’ll have a very close game here – both sides cancelling each other out type of game – and the draw is the value bet in my opinion at 3.25.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Draw at 3.25 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LasOsa
