FRIDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews PARMA v LECCE and LEGANES v RAYO VALLECANO both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
PARMA V LECCE
7.45pm It’s been a hectic week around Europe on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE! We had the final matchdays in the Champions League and Europa League Group stages. We might not have that level of quality on Friday night, but we do have two interesting games from Serie A and La Liga that will have an impact on their relegation battles. We kick off the night in Serie A as Parma host Lecce, and this is a huge game for both sides. As things stand, Lecce come into this game sitting inside the relegation zone but Parma have the same amount of points as them. In between the two clubs lies Verona, so we’re going to have plenty of drama in the Serie A relegation battle this season. Venezia and especially Monza are getting a little adrift at the bottom; there are a lot of sides in contention for that final spot in the bottom three though. A win here for either side would jump them up into 13th for example! Parma come into the game as the favourites with home advantage at 2.24 with Lecce 3.55 and the draw is 3.5 at the time of writing.
Both sides have very similar profiles coming into this game. They both have the same points as highlighted above, but there’s only 0.06 between them on attacking figures and 0.09 on defensive figures. They are both in the bottom four at the back this season – Parma’s average xG conceded is 1.60 and Lecce have a figure of 1.51. Both sides are actually in mid-table on attacking figures, so it’s obvious that the problems are at the back. However, Lecce have really struggled in front of goal this season. Their average xG created is 1.23 but they are only converting close to half of that – they have the worst goal scoring record in Serie A this season. I would have liked to back Both Teams To Score given how poor both sides have been at the back, but that Lecce figure really does put me off that bet. I do feel with home advantage and the fact that Lecce are struggling to score so much, a small bet on the home win here is the value call at 2.24.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Parma to beat Lecce at 2.24 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/ParLec
LEGANES V RAYO VALLECANO
8pm We move over to La Liga to finish Friday night football from Europe as Leganes host Rayo Vallecano. This is another game that will have an impact on a relegation battle as Leganes start this matchday three points away from the relegation zone. Rayo Vallecano don’t have any such worries – they are actually pushing for a European spot at the moment. They sit in seventh place coming into the weekend – they have been getting away with a lot at the back this season though. Rayo Vallecano have an average xG conceded of 1.44 which is the fifth worst defensive figure in La Liga this season but their actual goals conceded average is just 1.14. That’s a lot of points! While Leganes are outside the relegation zone at the moment, their under-lining numbers don’t paint a pretty picture at all. They have the worst attacking figure with an average xG created of just 0.93, and they also have the worst defensive figure with an average xG conceded of 1.63. Just like Rayo Vallecano, they have been getting away with things a little at the back and that’s likely why they aren’t sitting in the bottom three at the moment.
We have an exceptionally open betting heat. Rayo Vallecano come into the game as the favourites at 2.7 with Leganes 3.25 and the draw is 3.0 at the time of writing. You can understand the market not having too much faith in either side – Rayo Vallecano have hardly been creating a huge volume of chances this season and obviously they have a quite average defensive figure which they have been getting away with. However, Leganes have been very poor this season – I know they have grinded out results and that is to their credit. It is for that reason that I’m going to keep stakes small here, however the 2.7 on Rayo Vallecano is too big to ignore. As I said above, Leganes have the worst attacking and defensive figure in La Liga this season. From a value point of view, I’d have Rayo Vallecano a little shorter and the Leganes win a little bigger – this is definitely a game for small stakes though!
The Ultra Says:
One point win Rayo Vallecano to beat Leganes at 2.7 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LegRay
