MONDAY LA LIGA: The Ultra previews ATHLETIC BILBAO v GIRONA with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
ATHLETIC BILBAO v GIRONA
8pm Monday night football from Europe comes from La Liga this week on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE. We have a massive clash between Athletic Bilbao and Girona to enjoy, with both sides having a superb season. Girona have been living the dream in the title race this season, even allowing for the fact that they have dropped points recently and Real Madrid have taken over it’s still an incredible achievement to be sitting in second. While Athletic Bilbao have to be delighted as well sitting in fifth. They just missed out on European football for the last two seasons and they’re set for their best finish since 2015/16.
Girona were firmly put in their place last weekend by Real Madrid. A 4-0 hammering between the two sides in the title race is never a good feeling; it was a bit like when Manchester City met Arsenal in the Premier League title run-in last season. The reality is though that Girona were massively punching above their weight this season – obviously they did enjoy a run at the title but getting into the Champions League is still a massive achievement. They aren’t a big club (yet) after all. They will be fully tested here as well; the away performances have had plenty of red flags this season despite their results.
Away from home, Girona are conceding an average xG of 1.67 which is exceptionally high for a side sitting in the top four. They haven’t been able to create as much as that, but you have to give them credit for getting results. On the bare under-lining numbers, and as they say stats don’t lie, Girona are one of the most over-performing sides in Europe this season. Their average xG created is 1.49 but their actual goals scored is 2.17 – that’s a huge difference. Not only that, but they have been over-performing at the back too; their average xG conceded is 1.47 but their actual goals conceded is pretty low at 1.21.
Maybe looking at the table, many casual football fans would feel Athletic Bilbao are a little short here. However, based on the Girona performance level you can get a better understanding of the odds. Athletic Bilbao are trading 2.0 with Girona 4.1 and the draw is 3.8 at the time of writing. Believe it or not, Athletic Bilbao have actually performed better than Girona this season – they have a higher average xG and a lower average conceded xG. If you played this season ten times, Athletic Bilbao would finish ahead of Girona quite a lot.
With home advantage here, Athletic Bilbao have an excellent chance. At home this season they have a very impressive average xG created of 1.78 and they’re only conceding an average of 1.07. That’s a very solid performance level. They’ve dropped points in three of their last four La Liga games, but they have all come away from home. At home they’ve only actually dropped points three times, and one of those was a loss to Real Madrid. When the sides met earlier in the season we had a 1-1 draw, there wasn’t much in it but Bilbao actually finished the game with a higher xG figure. With home advantage this time, they can get the job done – the 2.0 is worth a confident bet.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Athletic Bilbao to beat Girona at 2.0 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AthGir
