SERIE A MONDAY: The Ultra previews CREMONESE v FIORENTINA with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
CREMONESE V FIORENTINA
7.45pm It’s the start of a massive week around Europe with the Champions League and Europa League Last 16 second legs on Betdaq Betting Exchange! We kick it off with a huge relegation clash from Serie A though – maybe not as high quality as some fixtures to come – but it’s a genuine relegation six-pointer as Cremonese host Fiorentina. You don’t often say this about a club of Fiorentina’s stature, but this is a must-win game in a desperate fight for Serie A survival – and the stakes could hardly be higher. Fiorentina come into the game as the marginal odds on favourites at 1.99 with Cremonese 4.3 and the draw is 3.65 at the time of writing.
The situation at Fiorentina is genuinely remarkable and not in a good way. This is a club that has been a permanent fixture in the top flight for 22 consecutive seasons, a club that was competing in European football. They finished sixth last season! They were in the Europa Conference League Final in 2024. Now they are sitting 17th in Serie A, a single point clear of Cremonese the relegation zone. Before this matchday, Lecce are just two points ahead of Fiorentina – they are away to Napoli at the weekend too – it feels like they are the only side these two can catch. Paolo Vanoli has been frank about the situation, admitting after their 0-0 draw with Parma last weekend that “it’ll be a battle to the very end.” That 0-0 draw did at least leave them out of the relegation zone coming into this tie, but the performance was poor enough that their own supporters were jeering them. It’s all quite toxic.
The underlying numbers haven’t been that bad. Fiorentina’s average xG created of just 1.41 is the ninth best attacking figure in Serie A, and they have the exact same average xG conceded which is a mid-table figure too. Usually, when you’re creating what you conceding you end up in mid-table. Obviously a drop off for Fiorentina, but at least not relegation battle! The problem for Fiorentina all season has been scoring goals; Moise Kean has been one of the few bright spots all season, but he is currently sidelined with an ankle injury – without Kean, it is genuinely hard to see where the Fiorentina goal threat comes from. To make matters worse for Fiorentina; AC Milan want him and it’s hard to see him staying during the summer.
Cremonese are a very average side; and while you wouldn’t be rushing to back Fiorentina at odds on – really and truly they should be getting the job done here. Their average xG created of just 1.05 is the worst attacking figure in Serie A, their average xG conceded of 1.85 is also the worst defensive figure in Serie A by some distance. They have been leaking chances all season and they are without a win in 14 Serie A games. Morale probably couldn’t be lower – they’ve lost ten of those games, three of the draws finished 0-0. Fiorentina won 1-0 when the sides met earlier in the season – they finished with an xG of 2.49 but it took them until the 92nd minute to score – no guesses who scored; Moise Kean.
We have two sides here having a desperate season. You can say they’ve both been sloppy at the back and you might expect goals – but when you have the worst attack in Serie A against a side who can’t score themselves, it actually points towards a tight, scrappy affair. Under 2.5 goals is trading 1.93 and I do feel that offers more value than the Fiorentina win at 1.99. Fiorentina have been playing much better football, but you can hardly rely on them. This game has all the hallmarks of a cagey, low-quality, tense relegation battle with very little quality on show.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.93 BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SACrFi
