SERIE A MONDAY: The Ultra previews FIORENTINA v LAZIO with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
FIORENTINA V LAZIO
7.45pm Monday Night Football from Europe comes from Serie A on Betdaq Betting Exchange this week! It’s the start of a massive week all around Europe with the second legs of the Champions League and Europa League Quarter-Finals. We don’t have the most glamorous start compared to some of the fixtures coming up this week, but we do have a fascinating fixture and market as Fiorentina host Lazio. Fiorentina are having a very difficult season, but two wins from three games has seen them move away from the relegation battle for the time being. Lazio are also having a difficult season and look likely to miss out on European football; this season has been one of the most extraordinary fan revolts in recent Italian football.
Lazio’s story off the pitch has frankly been extraordinary. Their ultras group, the Curva Nord, launched a full scale boycott of home games in protest against the long-standing ownership of president Claudio Lotito. The grievances are deep; a perceived failure to invest in the squad, a transfer ban blamed on administrative mismanagement, and a sense that the club’s hierarchy has shown a fundamental lack of respect to the fans. The results were staggering – at one point only around 5,000 spectators attended a Serie A match at the 70,000 capacity Olimpico. Maurizio Sarri described playing in those conditions as “sad and depressing”. The boycott was briefly paused for one match – described by the ultras as “one last act of love” – and the atmosphere helped inspire a famous 1-0 win over league leaders AC Milan. But the boycott resumed immediately after the final whistle, and will continue for all remaining home fixtures. Lazio have been travelling in good numbers to away games, however, so Fiorentina may actually face a well backed visiting support on Monday.
Fiorentina’s season has been nothing short of a horror story as well. This is a club that came into the campaign with genuine European ambitions, and instead found themselves rooted to the bottom of the table for much of the first half of the season – without a single win in their opening 15 Serie A matches. Manager Stefano Pioli was sacked and replaced, and Fiorentina’s under-lining numbers are actually OK. Their average xG created of 1.39 is a genuinely respectable figure – mid-table level, just inside top half. Their average xG conceded of 1.44 is almost identical to Lazio at 1.45. Basically Fiorentina have mid-table figures, and actually have a better attacking figure than Lazio. Their average xG created is only 1.24.
We have a reasonably open betting heat; Fiorentina are the favourites with home advantage at 2.44 with Lazio 3.55 and the draw is 3.15 at the time of writing. Obviously given the season both these clubs are having, it’s easy to poke holes in both of them. I’m not in a rush to take a strong opinion on either side in the match odds market here. Neither side has the firepower to bully the other, and a cagey, tight game feels like the most likely outcome here. Under 2.5 goals is trading 1.76 and I’m happy with a small bet.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Under 2.5 goals at 1.76 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SAFiLa
