LA LIGA MONDAY: Our new European football tipster The Ultra is in terrific form and now previews Monday’s La Liga matches between ALAVES v GETAFE, VILLARREAL v REAL SOCIEDAD and GRANADA v REAL MADRID all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
The Ultra is a professional football trader with over ten years experience betting on European football. He has gladly agreed to do a weekly column on BETDAQ Tips where you can get all his latest bets.
The Ultra has a staking system between one and five points, with five points for only his most confident bets in Europe. He loves looking at the stats before each game and especially enjoys using xG (Expected Goals) to make a profit.
ALAVES V GETAFE
6.30pm We have another exciting night of La Liga action on Monday and I’m hoping to continue our fantastic run of form. Alaves went down 2-0 to Real Madrid on Friday night which wasn’t a surprise but it means that they’ve lost their last six and they’ve only scored once. They did created an xG of over 1 against Real Madrid which wasn’t bad but the overall picture for them in very poor. Getafe haven’t recorded a win in their last three before coming here, but they did have to play Real Madrid in that run.
I’m very surprise by the prices here. I thought Getafe would be shorter than their current 2.6. Alaves are battling for survival and perhaps that is priced in but I just can’t have Alaves at 3.6 here. They are creating very little and have only scored 20 home goals in 17 games this season. Getafe aren’t a team that you can rely on and it’s hard to see anything other than a very close game but I have to have a small bet on Getafe at the odds.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Getafe to beat Alaves at 2.6 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQAlaGet
VILLARREAL V REAL SOCIEDAD
6.30pm We landed out Real Sociedad lay on Friday night against Granada but we were lucky to do so. Granada scored three but only created an xG of 0.61 while Sociedad had an xG of 1.64. It was a crazy game with five goals, and we got the lucky breaks this time – of course they will even out over the course of the season. Even though Sociedad were unlucky to lose Friday night, they still weren’t impressive and their numbers still scream out that they should be opposed.
Villarreal are a good bet to win here. They’ve only lost to Barcelona in their last six games and also had to settle for a 2-2 draw against Sevilla which they won on xG. Apart from those two games, they have created xG’s of 2.11, 2.7, 2.44 and grinded out a 1-0 win with an xG of 0.69 against Granada in mid-June. I laid Sociedad on Friday because they weren’t creating chances, and it’s for the same reason I like Villarreal here – they will out-score Sociedad. At 2.4 they are very much worth backing.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Villarreal to beat Real Sociedad at 2.4 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQVilRea
GRANADA V REAL MADRID
9pm I’m very surprised to see Real Madrid as big as 1.52 here. I make them a confident bet at those odds. As I said above, Granada were able to beat Real Sociedad on Friday night but they were lucky to do so. They have been playing ok – certainly better than Sociedad were heading into Friday nights fixture – however Real Madrid are at a different level at I just can’t see them being as big as 1.52 here. They have won their last six and their numbers have been incredible.
Perhaps they are 1.52 because on paper it looks like they are only grinding out wins. Looking at xG, this is not the case. They won 1-0 against Athletic Bilbao, Getafe and Espanyol prior to beating Alaves 2-0, however against those three sides they created xG’s of 2.74, 1.96 and 2.61. They are battering teams – just not putting away their chances. They created an xG of 2.35 against Alaves Friday night and if they continue in this form, they can easily beat this Granada side.
The Ultra Says:
Four points win Real Madrid to beat Granada at 1.52 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQGraRea
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