SERIE A MONDAY: The Ultra previews LAZIO v COMO with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
LAZIO V COMO
7.45pm Monday Night Football from Europe on Betdaq Betting Exchange this week comes from Serie A. Lazio host Como in what should be a very competitive affair – it’s a massive game for both sides in the race for European spots too. You could definitely call this a must win game for Lazio with home advantage – they have been well off the pace so far this season. They are currently six points behind Como who sit in sixth place – they had a setback last week with a loss at home to AC Milan, but they have been fantastic this season under Cesc Fabregas.
We have an exceptionally open betting heat here; there’s only four ticks between the sides at the moment and you wouldn’t be surprised to see flip-flopping favourites. Lazio are the marginal favourites at 2.94 with Lazio 2.98 and the draw is 3.05 at the time of writing. The best way to describe Lazio this season is lacklustre – their average xG created is only 1.27 which is a mid-table figure in Serie A. Even with Lazio have a disappointing season in mid-table, you could even make a strong argument that they are actually lucky to be sitting as high as they are in the table.
Their average xG conceded is 1.42 which is quite high – again basically mid-table level in Serie A – but they have massively been getting away with things this season. Their actual goals conceded average is only 0.80 – a lot of points gained there. Como are obviously a small club and most Serie A fans would have said they would struggle to even stay in the league but they have been playing superb football. In my opinion, Fabregas is doing the best job in world football at the moment given the resources he has compared to the top clubs. Como have the fourth best attacking figure and also the fourth best defensive figure. European football is a fairy-tale that they deserve.
It’s easy to see why we have an open betting heat given Lazio have home advantage, but I do feel that we have the wrong favourites here. I’d have Como as the favourites and the 2.98 is a tempting bet. Another option has to be Under 2.5 goals at 1.64 – Lazio games have been very low scoring this season and obviously Como have been rock solid at the back too. Under 2.5 goals has collected in 16 of Lazio’s 20 Serie A games this season which is a remarkable stat. Obviously I couldn’t put anyone off that bet, but I do feel the 2.98 on Como here is cracking value and I’m happy with that.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Como to beat Lazio at 2.98 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SALaCo
