MONDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews MALLORCA v ATHLETIC BILBAO with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
MALLORCA V ATHLETIC BILBAO
8pm Monday night football on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE comes from La Liga this week as Mallorca host Athletic Bilbao. It’s not quite the glamorous week ahead as last week when we had Champions League football, but we do have European midweek action from Serie A along with the Cup action from Spain and Germany. We have a very open betting heat here – Athletic Bilbao are the favourites at 2.84 with Mallorca 3.05 and the draw is 3.1 at the time of writing.
Both sides will be absolutely delighted with their start to the season. They have the exact same record at the moment – five wins from ten games, and they sit beside each other in the table on 17 points. They have both been over-performing when you look at their under-lining numbers and it’s easy to see why we have such an open market here. Athletic Bilbao had their best season ever last time, but they have struggled to create good quality chances at the start of the season. Their average xG created is only 1.22 which is a very poor figure to tell the truth – that’s actually the sixth worst attacking figure in La Liga this season.
Why Bilbao sit so high in the table is they are massively over-performing in front of goal. Their actual goals scored average is 1.70, which makes them the second most over-performing side in La Liga this season. Mallorca are creating more with an average xG created of 1.38 but they have struggled to convert those chances. Where they are over-performing is at the back; their average xG conceded is 1.43 but their actual figure is 0.80. While Bilbao were fantastic last season, their away performances were well short of their level at home. They were exceptionally strong in front of their own fans, but away from home they did struggle at times.
We have plenty of questions here – can Mallorca take their chances? Will Bilbao perform away from home? As I said above, it’s easy to understand why we have such an open market because you can pick holes quite easily in both sides. I have to say I do feel that the 2.84 is a little short on Bilbao away from home. The market is expecting a cagey game with Under 2.5 goals trading 1.55 – I would be tempted by Unders if the price was a little bigger, but it looks well priced at 1.55. I do feel Mallorca are marginally playing better than Bilbao this season, and with home advantage they can get a result here – I’m happy to lay Bilbao from a value point of view.
The Ultra Says:
One point lay (liability) Athletic Bilbao to beat Mallorca at 2.84 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MalBil
