SERIE A MONDAY: The Ultra previews NAPOLI v AC MILAN with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
NAPOLI V AC MILAN
7.45pm Monday Night Football on Betdaq Betting Exchange this week comes from Serie A, and what a way to finish the Easter weekend with a blockbuster as Napoli host AC Milan! This is the start of a huge week with the Champions League Quarter-Finals starting too. This is a must win game for both sides as they aim to try and keep tabs on Inter Milan at the top of the table. Coming into the matchday, Inter Milan currently lead the Serie A table by six points from AC Milan in second, with Napoli a further point back in third. A draw does neither side any favours to be honest – they both look solid in the top four. There is genuinely everything to play for so, and it should be a cracking game.
We have an open betting heat in what should be a very competitive affair. Napoli are the favourites with home advantage at 2.66 with AC Milan 3.2 and the draw is 3.1 at the time of writing. Napoli have struggled this season – dropped plenty of points domestically and then exited the Champions League at the Group stage which is woeful really with 24 teams going through these days – but to their credit, they come into this one in fine form – four consecutive Serie A wins before the international break. I suppose the benefit of no European football is it does allow sides to focus domestically and have a longer prep, more rest between games etc. AC Milan have been very difficult to beat this season though, they’ve only lost three times – even Inter Milan had already lost five times before the International Break.
There’s only one point between them in the table, and there’s very little between them in performance levels too. AC Milan have an average xG created of 1.54 which is the sixth best attacking figure in Serie A – almost identical to Napoli who have an average xG created of 1.51. They are right beside each other in the attacking table as well as the points table – but in sixth and seventh, not overly impressive figures. Napoli have been better at the back – their average xG conceded of 1.13 is the fourth best defensive figure in Serie A. Basically tells you everything about how well-drilled they are at the back. Conte teams are always built on defensive solidarity first, and this season has been no exception. However, those attacking numbers do explain why they haven’t quite been able to live with Inter Milan this season – they are not creating an enormous volume of chances, and they are a side that needs things to click on the day.
AC Milan are conceding more chances – their xG conceded of 1.28 is outside the top six defensive figures in Italy this season. They’ve been massively getting away with things at the back; they aren’t far off only conceding half of those chances. They have been particularly hard to beat away from the San Siro this season – losing only one league game on the road all season, and that stat alone would put you off Napoli at 2.66 considering they aren’t exactly blowing sides away. This should be a cracking game, but everything points to a very close affair too. Under 2.5 goals looks well priced at 1.68 – it should be a classic tight and cagey Italian football affair to be honest. Both sides solid at the back, neither banging the door down with the chances. The draw looks worthy of an investment at 3.1.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Draw at 3.1 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SANaAc
