NATIONS LEAGUE: The Ultra previews POLAND v SCOTLAND and LUXEMBOURG v NORTHERN IRELAND both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
POLAND V SCOTLAND
7.45pm The Nations League continues on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE with two huge games for the Home Nations on Monday night! After a wonderful win for Scotland over Croatia on Friday night, they have a chance to avoid direct relegation in Group A1 while Northern Ireland take a two point lead into this final matchday in Group C3. We kick off the evening in Group A1 as Poland host Scotland – these two sides are in a poor position sitting in the bottom two spots. One will get a chance to stay in an A Group as they go into a relegation playoff, while the other will get relegated. As I said at the start of this campaign, this was always going to be an exceptionally difficult Group for Scotland and they are likely to bounce between the top two tiers. However, to come into the final game level on points with Poland and having a chance to avoid direct relegation is a pretty impressive performance from Scotland – once again it’s a sign of the progress they have made in recent years. Poland have the head-to-head advantage with a 3-2 win in Scotland at the start of the Group, but that’s nothing Scotland can’t turn around here with a famous win.
That was actually a very cruel loss for Scotland – the winner came from a penalty in the 97th minute. Scotland are always much stronger in front of their own fans, and now away from home they face a very difficult task to get the win. A draw won’t be good enough for Scotland, so we might get a very entertaining game – I can’t see them being too open to begin with, but they’ll have to chase the game in the second half. As you would expect with home advantage, Poland come into the game as the favourites at 2.26 with Scotland 3.35 and the draw is 3.65 at the time of writing. Poland have definitely been going backwards in recent years, that’s be highlighted many times now especially at Euro 2024 and even finishing behind Albania and Czech Republic in qualifying. I wouldn’t consider backing them at 2.26, but as we saw when the sides met earlier in the Group there really isn’t much between them here. We had five goals when the sides met in the Group, and with Scotland needing a win I feel we’ll see goals again – Over 2.5 goals is trading 2.04 and I’d have that as the favourite.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Over 2.5 goals at 2.04 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/PolSco
LUXEMBOURG V NORTHERN IRELAND
7.45pm We move to over to Group C3 to finish Monday night as Northern Ireland travel to take on Luxembourg. Northern Ireland went through two Nations League tournaments without actually getting a win – they finally got their first win in the 2022/23 addition and now they have a chance to win a Group! You sometimes forget what a low level a C Group is so while it’s nothing to get too excited about, it’s massive for Northern Ireland because they are always likely to miss out on qualification for the next Euros – a playoff spot for winning a Nations League Group is a massive reward. They come into the final matchday with a two point lead over Bulgaria, and they now face the weakest side in the Group too – Luxembourg have only managed two points. At worst, Northern Ireland are certain of a promotion playoff spot anyway. We have an interesting market, Northern Ireland are the favourites but they aren’t trading odds on. Northern Ireland are trading 2.16 with Luxembourg 4.2 and the draw is 3.25 at the time of writing. Given the goal difference situation after a 5-0 win for Northern Ireland over Bulgaria, a draw would be good enough here.
That’s definitely something to keep in mind because Northern Ireland don’t create a huge volume of chances. That 5-0 win is a very rare result to be honest, they had to grind out a 2-0 win over Luxembourg earlier in the Group when they had home advantage. Northern Ireland actually haven’t record an away win this season with a 1-0 loss away to Bulgaria and a 0-0 draw away to Belarus. They did play very well against Belarus to be fair to them, but still the fact remains that they don’t usually score a high volume of goals. I don’t see Luxembourg challenging much at the back, and 0-0 seems to be their best chance of a result. I do feel that the 2.16 on Northern Ireland is a little big, but obviously the Group situation has to be a factor here and a draw suiting them – that could easily be their mindset heading into the final 20 minutes. Under 2.5 goals is trading 1.55 so the market is expecting a quiet game; that’s short enough so I’m going to opt for a small position on the away win.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Northern Ireland to beat Luxembourg at 2.16 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LuxNor
