MONDAY LA LIGA: Our football tipster The Ultra previews Monday’s clash between OSASUNA v ELCHE with a recommended BETDAQ bet.

OSASUNA V ELCHE

8pm We just have one fixture to enjoy this week for Monday night football on BETDAQ Betting Exchange and it comes from La Liga as Osasuna host Elche. Osasuna come into the game as odds on favourites and when you look at the table it’s easy to dismiss this as an easy home win. However, Osasuna arrive into the fixture without a win in five games and they haven’t scored in their last four. They have had an exceptionally difficult fixture list however, so let’s now be too harsh on them.

Although they haven’t managed to score in their last four games, they have played Real Madrid, Sevilla, Real Sociedad and Atletico Madrid – so basically the top four teams in the league standings. This is a good opportunity for them to bounce back to winning ways, the only question is their confidence coming into this game. We just have to weigh up the value in the market, and I believe the home win is priced big enough at 1.88 to back. Elche come into this game sitting in the bottom three and they have been conceding quite a few chances this season.

Elche have also had a couple of lucky draws, so they could have less points than they have now. They got a 2-2 draw away to Mallorca recently but the game finished with an xG of 2.87 to 0.81 to Mallorca, and they were very lucky to draw 1-1 with Sevilla early in the season – again conceding an xG of over 2. The best angle of attack here is to possibly forget the last four games from Osasuna because of the gulf in class in opposition. Prior to those games, they had been pretty solid.

My main worry with Osasuna is that they don’t create a huge amount of chances. They tend to grind out results rather than do anything flashy. For example, their average xG figure in La Liga this season is 1.2, not a very high figure. I suppose you could class them as your classic average mid-table La Liga side this season. I feel the difference in this game will be the mistakes Elche make at the back, and with Osasuna having home advantage it’s a nice play to take the 1.88 on the home win. This isn’t a bet to go mad about, but it’s worth having a small investment at the odds. Osasuna should be sitting at 1.8 to beat this very limited Elche side, but you have to feel this game won’t be pretty and Osasuna will grind out a win rather than create a huge amount of chances to blow Elche away.

The Ultra Says:
Two points win Osasuna to beat Elche at 1.88 with BETDAQ Exchange.

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