SERIE A MONDAY: The Ultra previews ROMA v CAGLIARI with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
ROMA V CAGLIARI
7.45pm Monday Night Football from Europe on Betdaq Betting Exchange comes from Serie A this week! Roma host Cagliari at the Stadio Olimpico, and the pressure is on the home side as the aim to stay in the mix for a top four spot. They dropped out of the top four last weekend with a 1-0 loss away to Udinese – they are still playing good football, but obviously competition for that top four is immense in Serie A this season. Juventus were always going to put them under immense pressure; they do have the second best attacking figure in Serie A.
Roma have the fourth best attacking figure in Serie A with an average xG created of 1.60, but they’ve been wasteful in front of goal – their convert goals average is just 1.17 and there’s a lot of points left on the table there. Cagliari are a pretty average side, but you could argue that they are in the best shape of the season after three straight wins – including a massive scalp over Juventus. Obviously they were a little lucky there; just 22% possession and one shot on goal, with Luca Mazzitelli scoring a brilliant volley. They then followed that up with a 4-0 hammering of Hellas Verona before beating Fiorentina too. They also beat Roma 1-0 when the sides met back in December, so they’ll arrive at the Olimpico full of confidence anyway!
Despite the three wins, there are some major red flags in the Cagliari performance levels. Their average xG created is only 1.11, and that’s in the bottom three attacking figure in Serie A. At the back, their average xG conceded is 1.56 which is in the bottom five defensive figures. Cagliari are probably lucky not to be more heavily involved in the relegation battle, and it’s no surprise that Roma come into the game as the odds on favourites – especially with home advantage. Roma are trading 1.55 with Cagliari 8.0 and the draw is 4.2 at the time of writing.
On paper, Roma should be winning this game comfortably. They have the better stats, they’re at home, and Cagliari are very average looking at their underlying numbers. You could make a strong case that Roma should be shorter here; even allowing for the fact that Cagliari come into the game off the back of three wins. However, the 1.55 doesn’t jump off the page when Roma are struggling to convert their chances. Roma have been keeping their games very tight this season. In the 23 Serie A games Roma have been involved in, Over 2.5 goals has only collected five times. With Cagliari happy to sit deep and defend here, I don’t see this being a goal-fest. Under 2.5 goals is trading 1.83 and that looks nice value to start the week.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.83 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SARoCa
