SERIE A PREVIEW: The Ultra previews ROMA v COMO with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
ROMA V COMO
7.45pm Monday Night Football from Europe on Betdaq Betting Exchange comes from Serie A this week. We have a fascinating fixture too as Roma host Como – Cesc Fabregas has been doing a wonderful job at Como given the resources he has. You could argue he’s been the best manager in Europe this year when you compared his club size and squad to the rest. Much like when Xabi Alonso was coming up, you’re just waiting for the big club to come in with a massive job but for the time being Como fans can live the dream.
Given the side of the club, after coming up to Serie A in after the 2023/24 season Como would have been expected to be fighting for their lives. They finished mid-table last season and they are in the hunt for a European spot now. Obviously that’s living the dream, but they do have the fourth best attacking figure in Serie A this season so they fully deserve to be hanging around that sixth place spot. Roma have been in the title challenge, but the cracks are beginning to show – back-to-back losses in recent weeks leave them coming into this matchday four points off top spot. They held that place two weeks ago!
Roma come into the game as the favourites at 2.24 with Como 3.95 and the draw is 3.25 at the time of writing. I have to say I was expecting a more open market here – there’s very little between the sides in my opinion. There’s only 0.02 between them on attacking xG figures, and even less between them at the back – the difference is only 0.01 there! Ironically, they also have exceptionally similar profiles too – both are slightly under-performing in front of goal and massively over-performing at the back. Roma have only conceded roughly half of the goals they should have going by xG figures.
I know home advantage will be a big factor here, but the 2.24 feels too short – Como have been playing some excellent football under Fabregas and when you see his speeches behind the scenes to the players it’s obvious that he has them running through brick walls for him. I know Roma have been playing excellent football too, but as I highlighted above there’s very little between the sides and I’d have the market far more open here. I feel Como will make the game closer than the odds suggest, and from a value point of view I’m happy with the Roma lay at the odds.
The Ultra Says:
Two points lay (liability) Roma to beat Como at 2.24 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SARoCo
