SERIE A MONDAY: The Ultra previews ROMA v GENOA with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
ROMA V GENOA
7.45pm Monday Night Football on Betdaq Betting Exchange comes from Serie A! We’ve all lost track of the days over Christmas by now surely, but Roma host Genoa needing a win to steady the ship. After sitting top of the table a few weeks ago, three losses from four Serie A games leaves Roma sitting in fourth coming into this matchday. It would be a surprise too if Juventus weren’t sitting above them by the time they kicked off here. I know Roma weren’t really included in the title race discussion at the start of the season in Serie A, but if they could hang onto a top four spot that would be a massive achievement.
With that in mind, you simply have to win home games against the likes of Genoa. Roma come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.67 with Genoa 7.0 and the draw is 3.7 at the time of writing. Genoa are involved in the relegation battle at the moment – they are two points ahead of Verona coming into this matchday but they have played one game more. Looking at their under-lining numbers, they should survive but they have to start taking their chances.
Genoa are sitting just outside the bottom six on attacking figures – an average xG created of 1.27 is basically a low-to-mid table attacking figure in Italy. They are conceding more chances than that too but their average xG conceded is a mid-table level again. The reason why Genoa are under pressure in the relegation battle at the moment is they simply aren’t converting their chances. Roma have also struggled to convert their chances this season despite getting so many wins. Their average xG created is 1.55 which is the fourth best attacking figure in Serie A this season.
However, they’ve only actually scored one goal more than Genoa. Roma are in the top three under-performing sides in front of goal this season; and you can also say that they’ve had one of their best starts to the season too – recently anyway! Roma have also been exceptionally solid at the back – indeed this is where the luck is levelling out. Sides have only taken roughly half of their chances against Roma, yet their average xG conceded is still impressive. With home advantage, it’s hard to see past Roma here – I expected them to be trading shorter than 1.67 when I clicked into the market. I feel we’re getting enough value in those odds for a Five Star NAP!
The Ultra Says:
Five points win Roma to beat Genoa at 1.67 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SARoGe
