MONDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews LAZIO v UDINESE and ALMERIA v SEVILLA both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
LAZIO V UDINESE
7.45pm We kick off another huge week of European action on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE with Monday night football from Serie A and La Liga! We start the evening in Serie A with Lazio hosting Udinese; we had plenty of massive clashes in Serie A over this matchday and this is another big game for both sides for different reasons. Lazio need a win to turn things around and finish their season strongly. Their fall from grace this season after finishing second has been quite dramatic – I know they massively over-performed last season to finish where they did but they have been playing very poor football this season after selling their best players. Their average xG created is just 0.94 which is the joint second worst attacking figure in Serie A. Why they sit in mid-table is their defensive record, but even mid-table has been a big drop from competing for the European spots. Udinese are also having a poor season; they are in the relegation battle and started this matchday just one point away from the bottom three. There’s a tonne of sides in the relegation Serie A battle this season; only five points between 13th and 19th!
Lazio come into the game as the odds on favourites, but there are plenty of willing layers! Lazio are trading 1.97 at the time of writing with Udinese 4.8 and the draw is 3.45. I know there are plenty of points between the sides, but there’s nothing between them looking at the xG figures. Udinese have an average xG created of 1.14 compared to Lazio at 0.94. Lazio have been better at the back with an average xG conceded of 1.3 while for Udinese it’s 1.42. Home advantage could be important here given Udinese’s performance level does drop quite a bit away from home; I still wouldn’t have Lazio odds on given the way they have played this season. Udinese have only managed three wins all season; remarkably two of those came away from home against Juventus and AC Milan! We had a very even game when the sides met earlier in the season, Udinese had a marginally higher xG but Lazio grinded out a 2-1 win. I expect another very close game here and the draw looks worthy of a small bet at 3.45.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Draw at 3.45 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LazUdi
ALMERIA V SEVILLA
8pm We move over to La Liga to finish Monday night football from Europe as Almeria host Sevilla. Earlier in the season you could have called this a relegation battle but Sevilla have moved away from danger at last. It hasn’t been good news for Almeria however as they sit nailed to the bottom of the table – they are actually still waiting for their first win of the season! Only nine points from 27 games is a very poor return; there hasn’t been much for their fans to shout about at all. While Almeria have really struggled to win games, they haven’t been too bad going forward. All their issues have come at the back – they are conceding over two goals per game on average, and their average xG conceded is the second worst in the league. At home they have been more solid, more competitive, but still not good enough. I have to say I was very surprised when I clicked into the market and saw the odds here; I was expecting to see Sevilla trading much shorter! Sevilla are the favourites at 2.46 with Almeria 3.15 and the draw is 3.45 at the time of writing.
Any fans of xG will know that Sevilla have been one of the major talking points of La Liga this season. Another desperately poor start results wise, more time in the relegation battle, but they have been playing very good football. It’s hard to believe Sevilla have an average xG created of 1.57 which is the fourth best attacking figure in La Liga this season! The major problem? They aren’t converting those chances by quite a distance, and then they are marginally conceding more than they should be as well. Obviously it is hard to have a lot of faith in Sevilla when they are creating a lot but failing to actually score, but there’s a huge gulf in class between the sides on performance level. I feel the 2.46 on Sevilla offers exceptional value here. They’ve finally started seeing results recently too; only one loss in their last six La Liga games. They have beaten Atletico Madrid and Real Sociedad too. I feel the 2.46 is so big that it’s worth a Max Bet.
The Ultra Says:
Five points win Sevilla to beat Almeria at 2.46 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AlmSvl
