MONDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews LECCE v ROMA and VILLARREAL v ATLETICO MADRID both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
LECCE V ROMA
5pm We have a cracking Monday night on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGEfrom Europe! We have action from Serie A and La Liga with Roma and Atletico Madrid both away from home. The evening kicks off in Serie A as Lecce host Roma, and all eyes will be on Roma as they push for a place in the top four. Not many would have saw this coming after they sacked Jose Mourinho – I know he was due to leave at the end of the season but it was a massive surprise given what he achieved with the club. We didn’t see any signs of him losing the dressing room or anything like that, but since the change in management Roma have been superb. Perhaps the handcuffs have come off tactics wise and they have been playing a lot more open game. Their average xG created is improving each week, and they are creating a lot more. They’ve only dropped points twice since Mourinho left; losing 4-2 to Inter Milan who are running away with the title and drawing 2-2 away to Fiorentina who have been very impressive at home this season. It’s been hard to actually fault Roma since the Mourinho decision.
This is a game that they will be expected to win, and they come into the game as the very marginal odds on favourites. They are trading odds on by the barest of margins – Roma are 1.99 with Lecce 4.4 and the draw is 3.6 at the time of writing. They face a Lecce side who will be delighted to be sitting in mid-table, but there’s a huge amount of sides within four points of the relegation zone. After finishing so close to the relegation zone last season, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Lecce get dragged towards the bottom three as the season comes to a close. They have struggled to score goals this season – they are actually creating marginally more chances than Roma over the season on average but they have been scoring less than a goal a game. Their average xG conceded is 1.51 which is the fifth worst defensive figure in Serie A, and that’s something Roma will be focusing on. Lecce have performed better at home compared to away this season, but Roma have all the momentum at the moment and they are full of confidence too. With Lecce conceding so many chances and Roma playing a new attacking brand of football, the 1.99 is worth taking.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Roma to beat Lecce at 1.99 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LecRom
VILLARREAL V ATLETICO MADRID
8pm Next we move over to La Liga to finish Monday night football with Villarreal hosting Atletico Madrid. This should be a very interesting game, and there’s a lot of pressure on Atletico Madrid now that they have fallen out of the top four. Two back-to-back losses before the International break has meant Athletic Bilbao jumped over them. Athletic Bilbao play Real Madrid on Sunday night however, so you could say – depending on that result of course – that this is a chance for Atletico to re-claim that fourth spot. The biggest worry here has to be their away form though, and that’s been the main reason why they aren’t kicking this fixture off sitting in the top four. Atletico Madrid have dropped points 12 times in La Liga this season, and ten of those have come away from home! They had their first home loss of the season just before the International break; losing 3-0 to Barcelona. Away from home they are only barely creating more chances than they are conceding, and their average xG conceded away from home is quite high at 1.42. Villarreal had a shocking start to their season, they were closer to the relegation zone than the European spots as usual, although things have gone south since Unai Emery left in fairness.
To their credit though, Villarreal have turned things around. They have put together an unbeaten run of nine games which included five wins, even a 5-3 win away to Barcelona. They have been a lot more solid at home compared to away; they have been conceding plenty of chances away from home but they are creating more than they are conceding at home. I have to say I was surprised when I clicked into the market here; I expected a more open market. Atletico Madrid are the favourites at 2.3 with Villarreal 3.05 and the draw is 3.95 at the time of writing. I know Villarreal have been very poor at times this season, but they have good momentum at the moment with their unbeaten run – Atletico are clearly the better side on paper but their away performance level is obviously a big worry and I’d have a more open market here. From a value point of view I’m very happy with the 2.3 lay. I expect a closer game than those odds suggest.
The Ultra Says:
Three points lay (liability) Atletico Madrid to beat Villarreal at 2.3 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/VlrAtl
