MONDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews LAZIO v VERONA and RAYO VALLECANO v OSASUNA both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
LAZIO V VERONA
7.45pm Monday night football on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE comes from Serie A and La Liga this week! It might not be the most glamorous evening but it’s a start of a massive week from Europe with the new Champions League kicking off – I’m pretty certain a limited amount of football fans actually know how the new Champions League format works but we’ll find out this week! We kick off the evening in Serie A with Lazio hosting Verona; both sides will be looking to improve on last season and Lazio come into this game as the odds on favourites. The home side are trading 1.67 with Verona 6.0 and the draw is 4.0 at the time of writing. Verona will be absolutely delighted with their start of the season – two wins from three games, and the loss coming against Juventus is hardly unexpected either. They were close to the relegation battle last season, they did finish in 13th but that was only three points off the bottom three with so many clubs involved. Verona have been trying to keep games as tight as possible at the start of the season, and their average xG created is only 0.97. It was low last season at 1.29, but that’s not relegation standard to be honest – usually relegation standard is sub 1.0 or very close to it. Lazio actually finished last season with a lower average xG created compared to Verona.
Lazio finished second in 2022/23, but the red warning signs have been flashing for a long time. When they finished second, their average xG created was 1.45 which was mid-table level, then last season it dropped further to 1.25 and obviously they’ve gone through a change in manager too. They have managed to stay in the race for European spots because they have been so solid at the back, but it’s hard to have confidence in a side creating so little. The early signs this season are promising – their average xG created is 1.54 after three games but it is early days. I know Verona are a limited side, but Lazio don’t make much appeal at odds on here in my opinion – I’m happy to stay out of the match odds market. This game screams a lack of goals and chances to me, and I was surprised to see Under 2.5 goals trading as big as 1.85. I felt that would be much shorter given Lazio’s issues going forward, and although Verona have over-performed in front of goal at the start of the season, their under-lining numbers are hardly impressive. I like the Unders here.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.85 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LazVer
RAYO VALLECANO V OSASUNA
8pm We move over to La Liga to finish Monday night as Rayo Vallecano host Osasuna, again not the most glamorous of fixtures but most of the top European sides are involved in the Champions League this week. Both of these sides will be reasonably pleased with their starts to the season – Rayo Vallecano have four points from four games and Osasuna have seven. Rayo Vallecano have already had to play Barcelona however. The home side come into the game as the favourites with Rayo Vallecano 2.16, Osasuna 4.3 and the draw is trading 3.2 at the time of writing. Both sides have pretty similar xG figures this season – Rayo Vallecano have an average xG created of 1.14 with Osasuna marginally over that at 1.19. Rayo Vallecano have conceded more chances, but you’d expect that given their fixture list. They have average xG conceded of 1.31 compared to Osasuna at just 1.13. Osasuna have turned into your classic mid-table La Liga side – they have finished between 7th and 11th every season since 2019/20 when they came up after winning the Segunda in 2018/19. You wouldn’t bet against them finishing in the same range again!
Rayo Vallecano had a really tough season last time – they finished down in 17th. They were five points off the bottom three, and weren’t really under pressure but it was a poor season. Looking at their under-lining numbers, you’d have to say that they were a little unlucky – their average xG created was 1.41 which was the seventh best attacking figure in La Liga. They should have been in the top half of the table not close to the bottom! The problem was they weren’t taking those chances, they were only scoring close to half of those chances created. They weren’t poor at the back, all the issues were up front. The jury is still out on whether they are going to have the same issues this season, and I feel the 2.16 is a little short against a solid side like Osasuna. I’d expect a closer game than those odds suggest, and from a value point of view I’m happy with a small Rayo Vallecano lay at the odds.
The Ultra Says:
One point lay (liability) Rayo Vallecano to beat Osasuna at 2.16 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/RayOsa
