MONDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews LAZIO v CAGLIARI and CELTA VIGO v GETAFE both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
LAZIO V CAGLIARI
7.45pm Monday night football from Europe comes from Serie A and La Liga on Betdaq Betting Exchange this week! We have two home favourites, but you could easily pick holes in both of them which makes for two interesting markets. It’s the start of a huge week from Europe with the Champions League and Europa League back – obviously the jury is still out on the new Champions League format but we do have some cracking ties to look forward to this week. We kick off Monday night in Serie A with Lazio hosting Cagliari, and Lazio come into the game as the odds on favourites. Lazio are trading 1.53 with Cagliari 7.8 and the draw is 4.5 at the time of writing. Lazio really struggled last season to finish down in seventh spot after over-performing to finish second in 2022/23. They’ve been through a change in manager, and it seems that they are heading in the right direction so far this season. Last season their average xG created was only 1.25 but so far this season it’s sitting at 1.52 which is in the top five attacking figures in Serie A. They’ve also been very solid at the back – most of the Lazio success in recent years has been built on the back of being very solid in defence.
They have an average xG conceded of just 1.16 which is again up towards the top of the table – the sixth best in Serie A. Cagliari finished one point away from the relegation zone last season, so they were always likely to be under pressure this season. They’ve had a reasonably poor start, and they currently sit just outside the relegation zone at the moment. Their average xG created is 1.2 which isn’t the worst attacking figure in the league, but they have struggled to even convert those limited chances. They’ve also really struggled at the back; their average xG conceded of 1.36 isn’t too bad but they’ve been very sloppy – their actual goals conceded average is 1.7. Unders backed have done well in Cagliari games this season – they’ve collected in seven of their ten games! Lazio games have had far more goals; Over 2.5 goals has landed in nine of their ten games. I’m happy to stay out of the goals market here, and it’s hard to see past a win for Lazio here – it’s not something to go crazy with staking wise, but Lazio can get the job done.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Lazio to beat Cagliari at 1.53 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LazCag
CELTA VIGO V GETAFE
8pm We move over to La Liga to finish Monday night as Celta Vigo host Getafe. Much like Cagliari in the above game, Getafe are a side under pressure coming into this game not far off the relegation zone. Celta Vigo come into the game as the favourites at 2.04 with Getafe 4.7 and the draw is 3.3 at the time of writing. Although Getafe are close to the relegation zone, they have actually been the best side at the back in La Liga this season! They are the only club conceding an average xG under 1.0 – their average xG conceded is 0.90 and that’s one of the best defensive figures around Europe to be honest. The problems have been up front – their average xG created is only 1.24 and they aren’t taking those limited chances. They are scoring less than a goal a game on average which is obviously a huge problem when it comes to getting over the line and winning games. Celta Vigo are sitting in mid-table and that’s not a true reflection of their form at the moment. They actually have the sixth best attacking figure in La Liga at the moment, and their average xG conceded at 1.26 is a respectable figure too.
The major issue for Celta Vigo this season has been at the back though. They’ve been very sloppy; their actual goals conceded average figure is 1.82. Only Real Valladolid have conceded more goals this season, and they sit in the relegation zone. That figure at the back would definitely put me off the Celta Vigo bet at 2.04 – if anything that looks a little short given how good Getafe have been at the back. I wouldn’t put anyone off a small lay on Celta Vigo from a value point of view, however obviously Getafe scoring goals is a worry. With that in mind, I do like two options here – I feel the draw is value at 3.3 in what should be a close game, closer than the odds suggest in my opinion. The other bet I like is Under 2.5 goals at 1.6, and it’s hard to see past this as my best bet here – Getafe will no doubt keep things very tight at the back, and while Celta Vigo have been very sloppy at the back, Getafe don’t really have the firepower to take advantage. I like the Unders here.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.6 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CelGtf
