MONDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews VENEZIA v VERONA and ALAVES v CELTA VIGO both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
VENEZIA V VERONA
5.30pm It’s the start of a massive week from Europe on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE! All eyes will be on the final matchday’s in the Champions League and Europa League this week. Monday night football comes from Serie A and La Liga to start the week – we might not have the glamorous ties that lie ahead this week, but we do have two interesting markets with sides under pressure in the relegation battle. We kick off the action with a huge tie in the relegation fight from Serie A as Venezia host Verona. It’s not too drama to call this a must win game for both sides – both sides come into this matchday sitting in the relegation zone. For Venezia, they need this win to get back into touch as they are getting a little adrift – they are four points behind Verona and five behind Lecce. Given Lecce play Inter Milan on Sunday, this is the best chance Venezia are going to get to try and close that gap – home advantage against another side in the relegation zone. From a Verona point of view, a win would put quite a bit of distance between themselves and the bottom two, and then they will likely jump over Parma and Lecce given they meet the Milan clubs over the weekend.
We might lack a bit of quality here, but hopefully we make up for that with drama given the situation. Venezia come into the game as favourites at 2.34 with Verona 3.5 and the draw is 3.4 at the time of writing. Given they are both sitting in the relegation zone, it’s clear they have been playing poor football this season. There aren’t many positives about either side looking at their under-lining numbers. Verona have the third worst attacking figure with an average xG of 1.07; Venezia are in the bottom six with a figure of 1.12 – both very poor figures. At the back, it’s a similar story – they are actually both the bottom two on defensive figures, and not only that but they are both conceding over their average xG. They’ve been poor at the back, and exceptionally sloppy. Verona have the conceded the most goals in Serie A this season. Given there’s little between the sides on the figures, it makes sense to have Venezia favourites here given they have home advantage, but you wouldn’t be rushing to take the 2.34. I feel both sides could easily cancel each other out here; you could see a boring 0-0 or an entertaining 3-3 full of mistakes, but I like the draw at 3.4 for a small investment.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Draw at 3.4 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/VenVer
ALAVES V CELTA VIGO
8pm We move over to La Liga to finish Monday night football as Alaves host Celta Vigo. This is another game that will have an impact on a relegation battle with Alaves sitting just outside the bottom three coming into this matchday. Celta Vigo aren’t a million miles away, but a five point cushion over the relegation zone along with their performance levels should see them not having to worry about a relegation battle. We have a very open betting heat here – Alaves are the favourites at 2.64 with Celta Vigo 3.15 and the draw is also 3.15 at the time of writing. Everything points to a very close game here, so it’s not a surprise to have such an open market. Alaves have an average xG created of 1.17 with Celta Vigo at 1.33. Both sides have very similar profiles this season – there’s only 0.01 between them on average xG conceded figures with Alaves at 1.24 and Celta Vigo at 1.24. What has been going wrong for both sides this season is they have been pretty sloppy at the back – they are both conceding well over their xG figure and that’s been a huge issue.
It’s easy to understand why the market is so open here; it’s hard to disagree with Alaves being the favourites given they have home advantage in what looks a very even game on paper. We have two fairly average sides going forward, and then they both been equally sloppy at the back. We can expect a few mistakes at the back here – Over 2.5 goals is trading 2.16. It’s one of those games where the defensive figures makes you want to be on Overs, but the attacking figures make you worry about it. While I do feel that Overs should be a little bit closer to 2.0 here, it’s hard to get away from the draw here at 3.15 in my opinion. Celta Vigo have been marginally better than Alaves this season which I think evens out the home advantage, and everything points to a very close game here. Much like the earlier Serie A game, I do feel this is another game where both sides could easily cancel each other out. I’m happy with a small bet on the draw again.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Draw at 3.15 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AlaCel
