SERIE A AND LA LIGA PREVIEW: The Ultra previews LAZIO v TORINO and CELTA VIGO v LAS PALMAS both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
LAZIO V TORINO
7.45pm Monday night football on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE comes from Serie A and La Liga this week! We have two interesting markets to go through, and we start the evening in Serie A as Lazio host Torino. Lazio went into the International Break with no momentum; one win from five Serie A games left them sitting down in sixth. They were “lucky” Juventus lost back-to-back games, but Bologna sit two points ahead of them in fourth now after four straight wins. Torino are your classic mid-table Serie A side, so this is a game that Lazio will be expected to win but there plenty of willing layers. Lazio are trading 1.81 with Torino 5.7 and the draw is 3.6 at the time of writing. Lazio have been creating a lot more chances this season – they really struggled in this department for a while, but they have the fourth best attacking figure in Serie A this season. What has let them down is they have been sloppy at the back, and that has cost them plenty of points this season; that being said they are still very much in the mix for that fourth spot. When you look at the Torino under-lining numbers, they have been quite average this season.
I was actually surprised to see Lazio trading as high as 1.81 when I clicked into the market. Obviously they went into the International Break off the back of a little poor run, but they did have a difficult fixture list too. Torino only have an average xG created of 1.14 this season, which is the fourth worst attacking figure in Serie A. What has them in mid-table is they haven’t been conceding many goals; but they’ve been getting away with things here. Their average xG conceded is 1.55 which is in the bottom five defensive figures. Away from home, their attacking figure drops even lower and I have to say the 1.81 looks cracking value on a Lazio win. The only positive thing to say about Torino is they have been grinding out a lot of results; they are obviously well set-up but the reality is sides haven’t been taking their chances against them. I feel with the amount Lazio have been creating this season, we’re getting so much value at 1.81 that they are worth a Five Star NAP!
The Ultra Says:
Five points win Lazio to beat Torino at 1.81 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LazTor
CELTA VIGO V LAS PALMAS
8pm We move over to La Liga to finish Monday night football as Celta Vigo host Las Palmas. We’re getting to the stage of the season now when every game is massive for Las Palmas as they continue to struggle – they went into the International Break sitting in the relegation zone, so they have a lot of work to do. Coming into this matchday, they are within three points of Espanyol in 15th so the relegation battle is still quite open in that sense. It’s easy to see where the problems have been for Las Palmas though; they are conceding far too many chances. They have the fourth worst defensive figure, and while they are creating more chances compared to last season, their attacking figure is still quite average with an average xG created of just 1.23. It’s been a catch-22 situation for Las Palmas this season – last season they finished with the worst attacking figure in La Liga and scored less than a goal a game on average. They were very solid at the back though, and it seems trying to create more chances has really cost them at the back. They certainly have a big fight on their hands to stay up this season!
It’s no surprise to see Celta Vigo come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.6 with Las Palmas 6.6 and the draw is 4.3 at the time of writing. Celta Vigo are sitting comfortably in mid-table, and they have an outside chance a Europa Conference League finish maybe. They haven’t created a huge volume of chances compared to Las Palmas – their average xG created is 1.32 which isn’t miles ahead of Las Palmas. They are effectively scoring what they are conceding, which usually lands you in mid-table in all of Europe’s major leagues. Celta Vigo have been a little sloppy at the back – they are conceding over their average xG conceded which is a negative here. We have two reasonably limited sides going forward but they have been too loose at the back; I feel Over 2.5 goals is correctly priced at 1.83. It’s hard to argue that it should be much shorter given their attacking figures. On balance, it’s hard to get away from Celta here given they have home advantage and Las Palmas have been so poor, but I’m happy to keep stakes low here.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Celta Vigo to beat Las Palmas at 1.6 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CelLas
