MONDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews NAPOLI V EMPOLI from Serie A and ATLETICO MADRID V REAL VALLADOLID from La Liga both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
NAPOLI V EMPOLI
7.45pm We have a superb Monday from Europe on Betdaq Betting Exchange this week! Napoli and Atletico Madrid are both in action from Serie A and La Liga, and this kicks off a fantastic week headlined by the second legs of the Champions League and Europa League Quarter-Finals! We kick off the night in Serie A with Napoli hosting Empoli – it’s been a tough two months for Napoli but they are just about hanging in there in the title race. Inter Milan have a six point cushion after winning at the weekend, so this is a must win game for Napoli to keep in touching distance. Atalanta have been losing a lot of games recently, so we’re down to a two horse race. Napoli have been on a very difficult run – only two Serie A wins since the start of February isn’t exactly title winning form; they have only lost once on that run, but they have dropped points with six draws. Any fans of xG figures could have seen this run coming though; they only have a mid-table attacking figure. They have been exceptionally solid at the back though, and as I have said before it’s hard to begrudge them a little luck in front of goal when they finished mid-table last season with the best attacking figure.
It’s not a surprise to see Napoli come into the game as the red-hot odds on favourites with home advantage and Empoli in the relegation zone. Napoli are trading 1.35 with Empoli 12.0 and the draw is 5.5 at the time of writing. Obviously I’ve highlighted above that Napoli are over-performing in front of goal this season, but the stats make for pretty grim reading for Empoli. They have the worst attacking figure in Serie A this season with an average xG created of 1.03. Their average xG conceded is far too high at 1.51 too, and it’s not a surprise to see them sitting in the relegation zone. Napoli have the joint-third best defensive figure in Serie A this season, and they are conceding less than a goal a game on average too – they have built their success on being rock solid at the back. They face the worst attacking side in the league here, and I’d much rather back a Napoli clean sheet compared to Over or Under 2.5 goals for example. Both Teams Not To Score is 1.64 and that looks a very nice position to start the night.
The Ultra Says: Two points win Both Teams Not To Score at 1.64 with Betdaq Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NapEmp
ATLETICO MADRID V REAL VALLADOLID
8pm We move over to La Liga to finish Monday night as Atletico Madrid host Real Valladolid. Atletico Madrid will be fully expected to win here given Real Valladolid have been nailed to the bottom of the table. They’ve looked well short of La Liga quality this season, and morale at the club must be at an all-time low. Wins have obviously been rare this season given they only have 16 points, but they’ve gone eleven games without a win now and they’ve suffered some beatings in that run too. 7-1 to Athletic Bilbao the low point but a 4-0 hammering at home against Getafe last weekend was almost a case of the white flag being waved. Atletico got back to winning ways last weekend with a 2-1 win away to Sevilla – that was badly needed but a lot of damage was done to their title chances with back-to-back losses before the International Break, and then they dropped points against Espanyol then after the International Break. It’s hard to see them getting back into the mix now, especially with Barcelona in such good form. It’s very hard to see past Atletico here, but the market has them one of the shortest prices you’ll see this week!
Atletico Madrid are trading as short as 1.14 with Real Valladolid 27.0 and the draw is 10.5 at the time of writing. With Atletico trading so short and Real Valladolid there for the taking, we’ll have to look around the side markets for some value. This one is about how many goals can Atletico can score rather than will they actually win. Atletico actually haven’t been overly impressive in front of goal this season – their average xG created is only 1.43 which is seventh in attacking figures. I wouldn’t be rushing into them to cover fancy handicaps here, even allowing for the fact that the Valladolid heads have seemingly gone down. Valladolid have been exceptionally sloppy at the back though; but they’ve been so limited going forward I feel Atletico can keep a clean sheet here on the way to winning. Both Teams Not To Score is trading 1.57 and that looks worth backing. I couldn’t put anyone off a BTTS No Double to start the week!
The Ultra Says: Two points win Both Teams Not To Score at 1.57 with Betdaq Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AtlRev
