MONDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews VERONA v LECCE and GIRONA v ATHLETIC BILBAO both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
VERONA V LECCE
5.30pm Another week from Europe begins on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE, and we have a massive week around Europe with Champions League and Europa League action to enjoy. We start the week with some domestic action from Serie A and La Liga however – we have two very interesting markets to go through! We kick off the evening in Serie A as Verona host Lecce, we have two very limited sides here and it will be interesting to see how this plays out. Verona have had a desperate start to the season, but this is the type of fixture that they need to win to get out of the relegation zone. These two finished in 16th and 17th last season – Verona had to do a relegation playoff because they matched Spezia on points too. This season Verona have been in trouble again; they have only managed eight points from their 12 games and that leaves them sitting in the bottom three. Lecce have a six point cushion on Verona and plenty of teams behind them to the bottom three. They have been playing reasonably average football, but their level is high enough that they don’t have to worry about going down. They should finished in or around 15th.
It’s a different story for Verona though, they are in trouble. They are one of only three sides in Serie A creating an average xG of under 1.0 this season. They have been poor at the back too; their average xG conceded of 1.55 is the joint-fourth worst figure in the league at the back. As I said above, Lecce are pretty average but they have been better going forward (average xG 1.3) and at the back (average xG 1.4) than Verona this season. It’s no surprise that we have an exceptionally open market here; Verona are the favourites at 2.74 with Lecce 3.15 and the draw is 3.05. It’s one of the most open markets over the whole Serie A matchday! I have to say I like Lecce at 3.15. I was going to lay Verona, but I feel the draw is a little too short at 3.05 so it doesn’t offer much value to have it on our side. Verona have been very poor at home this season – they are actually conceding more chances at home compared to away. I know Lecce aren’t a side to trust, and their away form is quite poor too but I just feel Verona as the favourites here is wrong. I’m happy with a small position on Lecce.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Lecce to beat Verona at 3.15 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/VerLec
GIRONA V ATHLETIC BILBAO
8pm Next we move over to La Liga to finish the evening. Girona host Athletic Bilbao in what should be a cracking fixture. Both sides will be absolutely delighted with their starts to the season – Girona are in dreamland starting the matchday sitting top of the table ahead of Real Madrid and Barcelona. While Athletic Bilbao started the weekend sitting in fifth place; there’s a little gap already to the top four but they aren’t good enough for Champions League football. They finished one point outside of the European spots last season, so a European spot would be a cracking result for them. Both sides have been playing very good football, so this should be a high quality game too. We have a pretty open market; Girona come into the game as favourites at 2.4 with Athletic Bilbao 3.05 and the draw is trading 3.8 at the time of writing. Girona have been exceptional this season, and they truly are living in dream land. They’ve won 11 of their 13 games, and while we don’t expect them to hold onto first spot there’s a pretty good chance now that they can finish in the top four which would be an immense achievement. It’s actually hard to believe – they finished in sixth in the Segunda in 2021/22, they could be playing Champions League football in 2024. With Sevilla and Real Sociedad being off the pace this season too, I actually don’t see them dropping out of the top four either. Obviously Athletic Bilbao might have other plans as they sit in fifth, but they are already ten points behind Girona.
While it’s obviously surprising Girona have managed to stay at the top of the table, they have been playing good football. Their average xG created is 1.58 which is a reasonably good figure – Athletic Bilbao are actually creating marginally more at an average of 1.63. Athletic Bilbao have also been a little better at the back – their average xG conceded is only 1.29 while for Girona it’s 1.39. The big factor here however is that Athletic Bilbao have been far more stronger at home compared to away. Their overall performance level attacking and defending at home is much better, and you can understand why Girona are favourites with home advantage. The market is expecting goals here with Over 2.5 goals trading 1.65, but I’m not so sure. Bilbao haven’t created a huge amount away from home, and they have been a little bit more solid than Girona overall too. I wouldn’t be surprised if we had a more cagey and low scoring affair here than the market expects, and the value in my opinion is with Under 2.5 goals at 2.28.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 2.28 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/GirBil
