MONDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews Monday’s games between EMPOLI V SAMPDORIA and CADIZ V ELCHE both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
EMPOLI V SAMPDORIA
7.45pm A new week starts in Europe on BETDAQ Betting Exchange! We have one game from Serie A and one from La Liga, both involving teams in the relegation battle in two important games. We start over in Serie A as Empoli host Sampdoria. Although Pep Guardiola was quoted as saying “it’s a long season” when Manchester City lost at the weekend in the Premier League, for sides sitting in the bottom three time is already running out. Half the season is left of course, but as the weeks slip by they become more desperate for results. Sampdoria are definitely one of those sides as they are becoming more than a little adrift in the bottom three. They started the weekend sitting six points behind Spezia, and at the moment you’d have to say the bottom three of Sampdoria, Verona and Cremonese look a little locked in already. The effort it will take to catch up with the other sides will be a lot of work, and then to go past is a big ask. I always find even the sides who get back in touch tend to go down in the end anyway because eventually they run into the big sides to break their momentum. Empoli are sitting comfortably around that 14th position, they are ten points away from danger with no real worries.
Empoli come into the game as the favourites, and I’m sure they will be a popular bet at 2.34 to start the week. While I would be surprised if Empoli didn’t grind out a win here, I wouldn’t be rushing to back them. Although they are ten points off the relegation zone, they haven’t been playing good football this season. They have been lucky at the back because their average xG conceded is 1.8 per game but their actual in Serie A is only 1.3. They have been giving away a lot of chances and eventually teams will start to take them. They have issues going forward too with an average xG of only 1.0. As you can imagine looking at the table, Sampdoria’s stats are just as bad. They are worse going forward, but they are marginally more solid at the back. We could have a very cagey game here between two sides who really don’t create much. I’m happy to stay away from the match odds market and back Under 2.5 goals at 1.73 which jumps off the page here. It’s hard to see these two playing an open game.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.73 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/EmpSam
CADIZ V ELCHE
8pm We move over to La Liga to finish Monday Night Football as Cadiz host Elche. This is a huge relegation battle as these two take up the bottom two places in La Liga. Things are far more bleak for Elche rather than Cadiz, as they are the only side left in La Liga yet to win a game this season. They have only managed four points from their 16 games and from a Cadiz point of view, this is a must win game. With home advantage, you simply can’t afford top drop points to Elche if you want to stay up this season. Although Sevilla lost again this weekend to stay on the same amount of points as Cadiz, I don’t think anyone believes Sevilla will actually go down. Sevilla moving up the table is going to cause problems for Cadiz because they have to jump over another two sides, and they must start by winning this game. Elche have been very poor in La Liga this season – you wouldn’t say that they have been worse away compared to at home however as they have two points away and two points at home! The Elche under-lining numbers make for grim reading too – usually it’s a red flag to see an average xG conceded of close to 2.0 but Elche’s is 2.5. I’ve often said you don’t win many games conceding two goals, well how about three! They aren’t creating a lot going forward either, and so far it’s just been a season to forget – morale in the camp must be very low. A loss here would likely see that morale go to an all time low.
Cadiz come into the game as the favourites, but they aren’t odds on. They are trading 2.0 at the time of writing, and that is a tempting bet. It’s not quite a bet to go mad about, at the end of the day Cadiz are sitting in the relegation zone too, but they have been playing solid football since returning from the World Cup. They are unbeaten, with a draw against Almeria and a win away to Valencia. Two very close games looking at the xG figures – indeed both times they conceded a higher xG than they created but it was very fine margins. Elche have had to play Atletico Madrid away and then Celta Vigo at home, but the 2.0 on Cadiz is worth backing here. I would keep the stakes reasonably small because Cadiz haven’t exactly been solid at home this season, but they are a better side than Elche and should get the job done here. I would suggest Elche are already going down, but if Cadiz don’t win this fixture they will be in big trouble too. The stakes are high for the home side!
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Cadiz to beat Elche at 2.0 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CdzElc
