MONDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews EMPOLI v LECCE and VALENCIA v RAYO VALLECANO both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
EMPOLI V LECCE
5.30pm Monday night football from Europe on BETDAQ Betting Exchange comes from Serie A and La Liga this week. We might not have the most glamorous fixtures, but we do have two very interesting betting heats to look at. Valencia are in action later in La Liga under immense pressure in the relegation battle, but we start the evening in Serie A as Empoli host Lecce. We have two very similar sides here, and we should have a very close game. The markets agrees as we have quite an open market. Empoli are the favourites as you would expect with home advantage, but they are trading 2.6 at the time of writing with Lecce 3.2. There’s only one point between the two of them in the table, and they both went into the International break on the back of a losing run. They’ve both lost their last four games, and while they aren’t quite in the relegation battle – another couple of losses will see them come under pressure. At the start of this matchday, Empoli were nine points away from Verona in the relegation zone and Lecce were eight – that’s definitely enough of a cushion to not really worry, but at the same time highlights both sides have been average this season.
You’d have to lean towards a low quality game of football here. Empoli have been conceding an average xG of close to 2.0 this season and they have been poor going forward too. Their average xG created is only 1.0. They have been over-performing at the back because their average xG conceded is 1.8 while their actual goals conceded works out at 1.3. The xG table actually puts them in the relegation zone, which has to be a major worry for them with a view to next season, and they will need some summer signings. Lecce have been much more solid at the back with an average xG conceded of just 1.2, but they have been just as poor going forward – their average xG created is actually under 1.0! It’s hard to see many goals in this one with the two sides so poor in front of goal, and Under 2.5 goals looks a very nice position here at 1.62. I have to say I expected to see it trading close to 1.5 looking at the stats, and I’m very happy with 1.62.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.62 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/EmpLec
VALENCIA V RAYO VALLECANO
8pm We move over to La Liga to finish the evening, and we have a fascinating situation as Valencia host Rayo Vallecano. Valencia aren’t one of the big clubs in Spain, but they do have a long and rich history of being a pretty solid club. They won La Liga twice in 2001/2002 and 2003/2004 as well as winning the UEFA Cup (now the Europa League) in that season too. More recently, they have won the Copa del Rey in 2018/2019. However, this season they have been in a relegation battle. They have obviously dropped off their level of old, but they mainly turned into a mid-table side. For them to get relegated would be a huge shock – in terms of getting relegated; they actually are a “massive club.” They start this game sitting in the bottom three, but no doubt everyone will expect them bounce out of the bottom three and stay up. The good news for Valencia fans is that they have won their last two home games, and they played very well against Osasuna too – plus the fact that Rayo Vallecano haven’t won for a while – Valencia will fancy their chances here. They are a little short at 2.24 in the match odds market however, that’s a short price for a side who are sitting in the bottom three and have struggled all season.
Rayo Vallecano have been quite solid away from home this season too. They sit in the top half of the away from table, but they did go into the International break having lost their last two away games to Celta Vigo and Cadiz; who are also in the relegation battle along with Valencia. It’s been six games without a win for Rayo Vallecano, but in fairness they haven’t been playing that badly. They drew 1-1 with Getafe and Sevilla but finished those games with xG figures of 2.04 and 1.58 – nearly three times what they conceded against Sevilla. They are conceding marginally more chances than they are creating, but there is only 0.1 in the difference on xG figures. They actually have very similar figures to Valencia who are creating and conceding an average xG of 1.5 this season. I fully respect Valencia have been much better at home, but I feel the 2.24 doesn’t reflect doesn’t reflect the true probability here. There shouldn’t be much between the sides, and I’m happy with the Valencia lay from a value point of view.
The Ultra Says:
Two points lay (liability) Valencia to beat Rayo Vallecano at 2.24 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/ValRay
