MONDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews EMPOLI v LECCE and RAYO VALLECANO v CELTA VIGO both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
EMPOLI V LECCE
5.30pm Monday night football on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE comes from Serie A and La Liga this week, and we have two exceptionally open markets! We might not have the most glamorous fixtures from Europe this week, but we kick off the evening in Serie A with Empoli hosting Lecce. While Lecce started this matchday sitting up in 13th, you have to feel this is a still a big game in the relegation battle – Lecce only have a six point advantage over the bottom three and they were pretty close to the relegation zone last season. If they were to lose here that would drag them back into danger; Empoli are five points behind Lecce and they started the weekend sitting just outside the bottom three in 17th. As you would expect given where the sides are in the table, they don’t have good under-lining numbers. Empoli finished seven points ahead of Lecce last season, but they’ve been playing a lot poorer football this season. Based on the under-lining numbers, Empoli are the worst side in Serie A this season. Even though they started the matchday outside the relegation zone, you wouldn’t be surprised if they went down this season. Their average xG created is only 0.93 – only one of three sides with an average under 1.0.
Empoli have also had major issues at the back too. Their average xG conceded is 1.76 which is the worst record at the back in Serie A this season. Their overall performance figure is the worst in Serie A too! There isn’t much positive to say about Empoli here, but with home advantage they do come into the game as favourites. The home win is trading 2.6 with Lecce 3.1 and the draw is 3.25 at the time of writing. Empoli have been slightly better at the back at home, but their average xG created is still under 1.0 at home. Lecce have better xG figures; they are creating more at 1.3 and conceding less at 1.46. Still pretty poor figures however; you can see why they are down the table. Away from home, they basically have the same average figures as Empoli’s overall figures. Poor going forward and at the back. We have two sides here that are hard to trust really performance wise; you would think Under 2.5 goals is an option given how limited they are going forward but they both poor at the back too. I felt Under 2.5 goals would be lower than 1.8 however, and I still feel even with the worries at the back that the 1.8 is worth a bet. Happy to keep stakes reasonably small here.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.8 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/EmpLcc
RAYO VALLECANO V CELTA VIGO
8pm We move over to La Liga to finish the evening as Rayo Vallecano host Celta Vigo. If you looked at the table you might think this is a great chance for Rayo Vallecano to claim three points, but looking at the stats from both sides would make you think differently! The market knows how the sides are performing too, and we have another very open market here. It’s exceptionally similar to the Serie A game above; Rayo Vallecano are 2.6 with Celta Vigo 3.05 and the draw is 3.35. Both home sides are the same price, only marginal difference in the away and draw prices. Celta Vigo have been playing the better football this season compared to Rayo Vallecano, but it is Rayo Vallecano that are getting the results and sitting comfortably in mid-table while Celta Vigo are under pressure in the relegation zone. When you look at the Celta Vigo performances you think that they are way too good to go down, but as each week goes past without a win obviously the pressure grows. They’ve still only managed one win from their 15 games, but a win would massively change things for them. Last season we had a tonne of sides involved in the La Liga relegation battle and I can see the same thing happening again. Celta Vigo ended up in 13th last season, but they were still only three points off the relegation zone – and they won on the final day too!
You have to give Rayo Vallecano credit for grinding out so many results this season, but they are conceding more chances than they are creating. Their average xG created is 1.44 and their average conceded is 1.61. That figure at the back is quite worrying; it’s actually the fourth worst defensive figure in La Liga this season. Celta Vigo have better figures; they are marginally creating more than they are conceding. Their average xG created is 1.43 and their average conceded is a little under that at 1.4. The problem for Celta Vigo this season is they aren’t taking their chances. Their actual goals scored only works out at 1.0. They have been one of the most “unlucky” sides in La Liga this season, but it is bad luck if you don’t take their chances, or just poor finishing! Both sides have been playing an open game this season, and Over 2.5 goals looks a really nice bet here at 2.12. I’d be surprised if we didn’t see an end-to-end game here with plenty of action.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 2.12 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/RayCel
