MONDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews Monday’s matches between SAMPDORIA v ROMA and VILLARREAL v OSASUNA both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
SAMPDORIA V ROMA
5.30pm We have a cracking Monday night football in Europe this week on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. Although we have no Champions League action this week, it’s another busy week with plenty of midweek action as leagues race to get in as many fixtures as possible before the winter World Cup in Qatar. We have two very interesting fixtures tonight from Serie A and La Liga, and we kick the evening off in Serie A with Sampdoria hosting Roma. While it’s been a decent start to the season for Jose Mourinho’s men, you can’t help but feel they have left a few points behind. With Inter Milan and AC Milan dropping points this season, there was a big chance for them to challenge for the title. Maybe even that’s too much at this stage, but it is the Jose Mourinho effect. Perhaps the goal this season has to be to break into the top four, and there’s a very realistic chance of that considering how poor Juventus have been this season. Roma have been playing some fantastic football this season, and they have been unlucky too – for example if you look at the xG table from Serie A you will see that they sit top. Their defeat at home to Atalanta was a classic example of their luck this season – they lost 1-0 while conceding an xG of 016 and creating 2.57 – they absolutely bossed the game.
On paper they really should be winning here. Sampdoria haven’t even managed a win in Serie A yet and they sit nailed to the bottom of the table. They have only managed three draws from their nine games, and the market is offering plenty of value with Roma trading as big as 1.78 at the time of writing. Sampdoria did manage to hold Juventus to a 0-0 draw here early in the season and they finished with a higher xG figure too, so perhaps the price is understandable in that sense; also another draw was a 1-1 at home against Lazio. That’s two big names held here, but in general Sampdoria have been playing average football and they are there for the taking – especially with Roma playing so well this season. Sampdoria’s aim will be to keep the game as tight as possible, but Roma have been creating an average xG of 2.2 in Serie A this season which is incredibly impressive. Unfortunately for them their actual average is 1.3, but if they keep creating this volume of chances they won’t be long taking them. They are only conceding an average xG of 0.7 too this season which is equally very impressive at the back. I’d have Roma much shorter here, and I’m happy to have a Max Bet at the odds.
The Ultra Says:
Five points win Roma to beat Sampdoria at 1.78 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SamRom
VILLARREAL V OSASUNA
8pm Next we move to La Liga to finish the evening as Villarreal host Osasuna. It was a massive weekend in La Liga with some big games, headlined by El Classico, and we also have a busy midweek fixture list to enjoy too. With Sevilla starting the season so poorly, Villarreal will be one of the teams most disappointed to be not in the mix to break into that fourth spot. They have had a reasonably poor start to the season with only 12 points from their eight games, and it already looks like their best spot is going to be the Europa League which is a shame for them. In all competitions, they have only recorded one win in their last six games though, and that’s just not good enough. Osasuna are your classic mid-table La Liga side, and even they come into this game with a better recent record than that! Villarreal will say they have been a little unlucky, and that is true – they could have easily won against Cadiz, Sevilla, Real Betis and Getafe recently but they just aren’t scoring enough goals. They finished with an xG 2.72 against Real Betis but still lost 1-0, and then with Sevilla struggling this season they had every chance to beat them too but didn’t take their chances. That has to be a big worry here if you’re considering taking the 1.7 on the home win.
On paper, there is a gulf in class between the sides here so Villarreal have to come into the game as favourites but I wouldn’t have them as short as 1.7. The thing is, I don’t want to be against them either – it’s not like they are playing very poorly, they just aren’t scoring but they are creating chances. From that point of view, I’m happy to skip the match odds market here and look around the side markets for some value. Osasuna managed to hold Real Madrid to a 1-1 draw in their last away game, and although they conceded an xG of 2.87 they managed to grind out a draw. With Villarreal struggling for goals I can see Osasuna frustrating Villarreal for a large part of the game here, and Under 2.5 goals is definitely worth an investment at 1.99. Clearly the Over/Under market is very even but I’d have Unders clear favourite.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.99 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/VilOsa
