SERIE A MONDAY: The Ultra previews Monday’s games between ROMA v TORINO and FIORENTINA V LAZIO both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
ROMA V TORINO
5.30pm Serie A is the focus for Monday night football from Europe on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE. We have two cracking fixtures, and two very interesting markets too. We start the evening with Roma host Torino after getting through to the Europa League Last 16 on penalties last week. That was certainly a dramatic evening here, and if we see half the drama here we will be lucky. Roma have obviously been through a lot lately with the sacking of Jose Mourinho taking all the headlines; although they have been playing disappointing football at times this season that news came as a big surprise. He certainly had all the fans behind him, and then he also brought the club their first major European trophy too. I really felt he had the dressing room behind him, but Roma have been playing very good football since he left which would raise questions. In fairness, they were beaten by Inter Milan and other than that they had a relatively easy fixture list. They played the three sides in the relegation zone and Frosinone – Torino will be their biggest test to date outside of Inter so we should have an interesting night here.
Roma, as expected, as favourites with home advantage. There are plenty of willing layers however, and it will be interesting to see if they start odds on or odds against – they are bang on 2.0 at the time of writing with Torino 4.8 and the draw is 3.25. Roma and Torino aren’t far apart on the chances created table – Roma’s average xG created is only 1.28 which is mainly the reason why Jose Mourinho was sacked. Torino’s is lower at 1.14, and away from home that drops to 1.04 which is quite a poor figure. Torino have been strong at the back to make up for that, and that’s why they sit in mid-table. Roma have also been exceptional at the back; their average xG conceded is only 1.17 which is the joint-third best defensive figure in Serie A. Torino also have the same xG conceded! I would definitely lean towards Roma at 2.0 given they have home advantage; Torino haven’t been as good away from home this season. However, this game screams a low scoring cagey affair. Under 2.5 goals is trading 1.6 and that looks cracking value with both sides so strong at the back.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.6 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/RomTro
FIORENTINA V LAZIO
7.45pm We have another cracking fixture to finish the night as Fiorentina host Lazio. We have a more open market than the game above, but Fiorentina are the favourites with home advantage. The home win is trading 2.34 with Lazio 3.6 and the draw is 3.2 at the time of writing. This is a massive game for both sides in the race for the European spots, and you could say without being too dramatic that it’s a must win game for both sides. They started the matchday sitting beside each other in 7th and 8th – they’ll also have one eye on the Roma game above as they start the evening sitting just ahead of them. Fiorentina got themselves into a good position earlier in the season but their form has hit the rocks recently. They’ve only managed one win in seven games, but they’ve been a lot more impressive at home this season. They only lost one home game on that recent run, and that was against Inter Milan as well. It’s still a disappointing run however, and it will be interesting to see how they cope with Lazio here. Lazio fans will still be buzzing after beating Bayern Munich in the Champions League, but they only lead 1-0 and play the second leg in Germany which is clearly going to be a massive task.
Lazio massively over-performed last season to finish second, but in fairness to them they grinded out wins when everyone around them was dropping points. They’ve been over-performing this season too; on paper they’ve actually been playing poor football. Their average xG created is only 1.08 which is the fourth worst attacking figure in Serie A. They have been scoring more goals than this, and at the same time not conceding the goals that they should. It’s hard to be positive about Lazio looking at those figures, however you do have to give them credit for grinding out games. The Fiorentina recent run is obviously a worry, but their home performances are levels above what level Lazio have been playing at this season. I’m going to keep stakes small here, but the 2.34 on Fiorentina looks a nice position here – small stakes because Lazio have grinded out results, but on paper they are there for the taking.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Fiorentina to beat Lazio at 2.34 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/FioLzi
