MONDAY SERIE A: The Ultra previews EMPOLI v UDINESE and VENEZIA v LECCE both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
EMPOLI V UDINESE
5.30pm It’s the start of a massive week of European football on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE, and we kick it off with Monday night football from Serie A. We might not have the most glamorous fixtures here compared to what’s to come with the Champions League and Europa League back, but we do have two exceptionally open betting heats to go through. We kick off the evening with Empoli hosting Udinese, and we’re close to having the magical 3.0 on every outcome here! There’s open betting heats, and then there’s this game. Udinese are the marginal favourites at 2.96 with Empoli 3.0 and the draw is 2.94 at the time of writing. I wouldn’t even be surprised to see the draw start the game as the firm favourite here. The sides sit right beside each other in Serie A in mid-table with only one point between them. They are both over-performing in the opening twelve game because there are some red flags in their performance levels. Empoli have an average xG created of only 0.91 this season which is the second worst attacking figure in Serie A – coming into this matchday they are one of only three sides with an average xG created under 1.0 which is never good!
What is saving Empoli at the moment is that they are getting away with things at the back. Their average xG conceded is 1.41, but their actual goals conceded figure is only 0.83. That’s been the difference between them sitting in mid-table and sitting towards the relegation zone. You wouldn’t be surprised to see them slide down the table as the season goes on. Udinese haven’t exactly been setting the world on fire either – they are creating more than Empoli but an average xG created of 1.22 is hardly impressive. They are conceding marginally more chances too with an average xG conceded of 1.44. It’s easy to see why we have such an open betting heat here, and it is hard to have much faith in either side to be honest. I know the draw is a very slight favourite in the market, but I would actually have it a little shorter in what should be a very close game. The market is expecting a quiet game with Under 2.5 goals 1.47, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 0-0 but I’m happy to be on the draw at 2.94.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Draw at 2.94 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/EmpUdi
VENEZIA V LECCE
7.45pm We finish Monday night football with a huge relegation battle from Serie A as Venezia host Lecce. You only have to look at the table to see that this is a massive game for both sides with the two of them sitting in the bottom three. Venezia always faced a tough challenge staying up this season after coming up from Serie B, and they are currently sitting bottom of the table. Lecce are one point ahead of them though, and while both clubs are obviously a poor position – there are a lot of clubs within touching distance above them. We have another open betting heat here with Venezia coming into the game as the favourites with home advantage. Venezia are trading 2.44 with Lecce 3.4 and the draw is 3.35 at the time of writing. It’s hard to have a lot of confidence in either side here, obviously they are having a difficult time at the moment. Looking at the under-lining numbers, it’s easy to see where both clubs are struggling. Their attacking figures aren’t too bad; mid-table average xG created figures but they aren’t converting those chances which is a problem. However, the biggest issue is at the back.
Both sides are sitting in the bottom four defensive figures. There’s actually only 0.01 between them on average xG conceded figures at 1.53 and 1.52 – they are both actually conceding over this though. It’s easy to see why they are sitting in the relegation zone. Lecce have had a terrible time in front of goal too; their average xG created is 1.32 which is just inside the top half of the attacking figure table, but they are only converting around a third of those chances. They have the lowest goals scored in Serie A this season! As I said above, it is hard to have any faith in either side looking at their position and their under-lining numbers too. I would say Lecce are playing the better football even if there isn’t much in it, but obviously they aren’t converting their chances. I feel we’ll see both sides cancel each other out here, and the draw is worth backing at 3.35.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Draw at 3.35 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/VenLec
