MONDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews VALENCIA v LAS PALMAS with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
VALENCIA V LAS PALMAS
8pm Monday night football from Europe on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE comes from La Liga as Valencia host Las Palmas. It might only be matchday ten, but this is already a huge relegation battle with both sides currently in the bottom three. Las Palmas are nailed to the bottom of the table at the moment; the only La Liga side yet to have won a game this season while Valencia are just three points ahead of them. Clearly both sides have been struggling at the start of the season, and I was slightly surprised to see we have an odds on favourite here.
Valencia are the odds on favourite with home advantage at 1.72 while Las Palmas are trading 6.0 and the draw is 3.7 at the time of writing. Valencia are clearly the bigger side, they have far more experience in La Liga too, but in my opinion it is Las Palmas that have played the better football this season. The reality here is we have two very average sides, and two sides clearly struggling to score too looking at their under-lining numbers. Obviously when you have two poor sides, home advantage does count for a lot but I still feel that the 1.72 is too short here.
Valencia currently have an average xG created of just 1.04, which is the fourth worst attacking figure in La Liga. Las Palmas are much higher at 1.36 which gets them into the top half of the table. Both sides haven’t taken those chances though, Las Palmas are scoring a goal a game on average while for Valencia it’s 0.56 – a little over half the chances they are creating. Valencia do have the edge at the back; their average xG conceded is 1.19 while for Las Palmas it’s 1.54 which is the third worst defensive figure in La Liga this season. Another major problem for both sides is they are conceding more goals than they should.
On the bare figures, you’d probably lean towards both sides staying up – Las Palmas are creating more than enough to stay up, and Valencia are pretty solid at the back. They’ve both been sloppy at both ends of the pitch however, and now they find themselves under pressure given they’re in the relegation zone. I still feel we’ll have a closer game than the odds suggest here, and from a value point of view I’m very happy with a small Valencia lay at 1.72. Obviously we have two average sides here in what might be a low quality game, and Under 2.5 goals is another option at 1.67 but I’m happy with the Valencia lay.
The Ultra Says:
One point lay (liability) Valencia to beat Las Palmas at 1.72 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/ValLas
