MONDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews VILLARREAL v LAS PALMAS with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
VILLARREAL V LAS PALMAS
8pm Monday night football from Europe this week comes from La Liga on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE as Villarreal host Las Palmas. Once again, we have another International break coming up at the end of this week – that’s two International breaks pretty early in the season – too early if you ask me! We have a cracking week ahead though with some superb Champions League fixtures to enjoy. As for this game, Villarreal will be expected to win here with home advantage and Las Palmas having a very tough start to the season.
Villarreal come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.49 with Las Palmas 7.0 and the draw is 5.1 at the time of writing. Unfortunately for Las Palmas, they are sitting bottom of the La Liga table with just three points from their opening seven games – they are the only side still waiting for a win this season too. They managed to survive last season which is to their credit, but there were some major red flags in their performance levels. They finished last season with the worst attacking figure in La Liga and although they were solid at the back, that seems to have failed them this season.
In fairness to Las Palmas, they have been creating more chances this season. Their average xG created is 1.33 compared to 1.16 last season, however the major difference is at the back. Last season they conceded an average xG of 1.31, and their actual goals conceded average was only 1.24. This season, although it’s still early days, their average xG conceded is 1.6 and their actual goals conceded average is higher at 1.86. When you have a side so limited going forward, you cannot give away chances like that, and it’s not a surprise they haven’t managed to get a win under their belts yet.
Coming into this matchday, that average xG conceded was the worst defensive figure in La Liga. The only thing that might give Las Palmas a little bit of hope here is Villarreal have the third worst defensive figure. They have had issues at the back since Unai Emery left to be honest – last season Villarreal finished with the worst defensive figure in La Liga. They are creating some good chances though; they have the fifth best attacking figure and their games have been the most entertaining and open in La Liga this season to be honest.
Las Palmas are a very average side, and away from home you’d have to expect them to struggle here. Villarreal should get the job done, but their defensive figure does put me off the 1.49. It’s hard to make an argument that they should be massively shorter when they are conceding so many chances. This game screams goals in my opinion, and Over 2.5 goals is trading ten ticks bigger than the Villarreal win at 1.59 with Both Teams To Score bigger again at 1.76. I couldn’t put anyone off either bet to be honest, but I marginally prefer Over 2.5 goals in what should be a very open and entertaining game.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.59 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/VilLas
