LA LIGA SATURDAY: The Ultra previews ATLETICO MADRID v BARCELONA with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
ATLETICO MADRID V BARCELONA
8pm What a way to kick off the weekend on Betdaq Betting Exchange! We have a blockbuster from La Liga as Atlético Madrid host Barcelona at the Metropolitano. This is a huge game for multiple reasons – obviously Barcelona are locked in a title battle with Real Madrid at the moment, but when you factor in that the two sides then meet twice more in the Champions League Quarter-Finals within the next fortnight, the stakes simply couldn’t be higher. There’s a lot to gain mentally here; especially for Atletico Madrid – they are certain of a top four spot in La Liga but they have never been in the title race – this one is more about pride, momentum and sending a statement ahead of the European tie rather than La Liga.
Barcelona have been absolutely superb this season, and it’s no surprise that they come into the game as favourites. This is obviously one of the tougher away fixtures though, so they aren’t trading odds on. Barcelona are 2.3 with Atletico Madrid 3.15 and the draw is 3.95 at the time of writing. Barcelona’s average xG created of 2.19 is the best attacking figure in La Liga this season, and while Atletico Madrid are third, they are quite a way behind with an average xG created of 1.65. That figure is impressive in its own right, just not compared to Barcelona! There isn’t as much between the sides at the back, but Barcelona are on top there too. Their average xGconceded of 1.07 is also the best defensive figure in La Liga to add to their attacking figure, and Atletico have an average xG conceded of 1.21 is the fourth best defensive figure – not bad again, they are a well-structured Simeone side, as you’d always expect. But the gap to Barcelona in both boxes is obvious.
Barcelona have been plagued by injury problems all season and this week has brought more bad news – Raphinha has suffered a right hamstring injury on international duty with Brazil and is ruled out for around five weeks. That is a massive blow for Hansi Flick. Atletico are missing a lot of players too though, they are still missing their number one in goal Oblak. When these sides have met recently, it has been box office. Barcelona ran out 3-1 winners at Camp Nou in La Liga back in December. Then came the Copa del Rey saga -Atletico pulled off a stunning 4-0 win at the Metropolitano in the first leg of the Semi-Final in February, before Barcelona hit back 3-0 at home in the second leg but just fell short on aggregate. Atletico have been pretty impressive at home this season, so I wouldn’t be rushing to take the 2.3 on Barcelona to be honest.
I do feel the market is slightly underestimating Atletico here, home advantage is important to them and obviously Simeone always lifts his side for the big occasions – I do take on board Barcelona have been playing the much better football this season though. I feel the best option here is to stay out of the match odds market because this game screams goals. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.51 and Both Teams To Score is one tick lower at 1.5. I couldn’t put anyone off either bet to be honest, however I feel there’s more value in Over 2.5 goals at 1.51. That’s landed in seven of the last eight meetings in all competitions, and we should see more drama here. I’m happy with a confident bet on Overs!
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.51 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
