SATURDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews RB LEIPZIG v EINTRACHT FRANKFURT, DARMSTADT v DORTMUND and MONZA v INTER MILAN all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
RB LEIPZIG V EINTRACHT FRANKFURT
2.30pm As usual, it’s a cracking Saturday around Europe on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE! The Bundesliga is back from the winter break, and we also have action from Serie A with league leaders Inter Milan in action. We kick off the day with a brilliant fixture in the Bundesliga as RB Leipzig host Eintracht Frankfurt. This is a big battle between two sides pushing for the European spots, but they are definitely aiming for different levels. RB Leipzig start the second half of the season sitting in fourth and they have a nice six point cushion on Dortmund in fifth. Everyone will be expecting Stuttgart to drop out of the top four given where they finished last season, however their under-lining numbers have been good and they have a decent chance of fighting off Dortmund. Eintracht Frankfurt are sitting behind Dortmund in sixth, and they are too far behind the top four to be worrying about Champions League football but a Europa League spot will be a nice target for them. RB Leipzig come into the game as the red-hot favourites, and they are trading 1.48 at the time of writing with Eintracht Frankfurt 7.8 and the draw is 5.2.
On first glance of the table, the 1.48 on RB Leipzig might feel short but Eintracht Frankfurt are one of the biggest over-performing sides in the Bundesliga this season. There’s a huge gulf in performance levels between the sides. RB Leipzig’s average xG figure is 1.81 which is the third best in the Bundesliga, while for Eintracht Frankfurt they only have an average xG created of 1.12. Their actual goals scored is much higher, but eventually they will stop scoring from difficult angles – that’s just probability. RB Leipzig have also been better at the back, again in the top three but Frankfurt have a mid-table figure. Frankfurt are also conceding a lot more chances away from home – they are creating an average xG of under 1.0 away too. Everything points to a comfortable home win here, and I feel the 1.48 on RB Leipzig is Max Bet material – they’ve been exceptional at home this season and can continue where they left off before Christmas.
The Ultra Says:
Five points win RB Leipzig to beat Eintracht Frankfurt at 1.48 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LeiFra
DARMSTADT V DORTMUND
5.30pm We stay in the Bundesliga next as new boys Darmstadt host Dortmund. As I mentioned above, Dortmund have a lot of work to do this season. After coming so close to a Bundesliga title last season, even to the point of having it in their own hands heading into the final day with home advantage too, they have been very disappointing this season. They start the second half of the season six points off the top four and it’s going to be very difficult to see them turning that around. As I said above, they aren’t going to catch RB Leipzig so their best hope is Stuttgart falling out of the top four. Stuttgart actually have a higher average xG created figure than Dortmund so far this season, so Dortmund are in trouble. This is a game that they will be fully expected to win, even away from home. Darmstadt start the second half of the season sitting bottom of the table, and it’s hard to see them staying up. They have managed just ten points from their 16 games – the positive is that the bottom three all have ten points but then there’s a three point gap to Union Berlin who will surely move up the table after finishing in the top four last season, and six points to Bochum which is a decent cushion. It seems the best Darmstadt can hope for is the relegation playoff spot and take their chances there.
Dortmund come into the game as the odds on favourites, but they aren’t as short as you might think they would be considering Darmstadt are bottom of the table. Dortmund are 1.58 at the time of writing with Darmstadt 5.9 and the draw is 5.0 at the time of writing. Darmstadt don’t have much going for them this season – they have conceded the most goals in the Bundesliga, have been poor going forward and are bottom of the table – where are the positives in that!? They might actually set a record for most goals conceded in the Bundesliga! Obviously their average xG conceded isn’t as bad as 41 goals in 16 games, but you don’t need me to tell you that they have been sloppy at the back. Dortmund have been quite average away from home – their average xG conceded away from home is a whopping 1.85 which is massive for a club like them. That’s why they are trading as big as 1.58 – I feel Darmstadt can score at some stage here, and Both Teams To Score looks a very nice bet at one tick bigger than the Dortmund win.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Both Teams To Score at 1.59 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/DarDor
MONZA V INTER MILAN
7.45pm We move over to Serie A to finish the action on Saturday as Monza host Inter Milan. It’s been a case of so far, so good for Inter Milan this season as they top the table by two points. The way things have gone over the last month has meant there’s only two left in the title race now, and Inter Milan have a huge performance level gap on Juventus. Based on the under-lining numbers, you’d have to expect the gap between the two to grow as the season goes on however you have to give Juventus credit for the amount of games they have grinded out. Inter have been just out-playing sides – their average xG created is 1.80 and their average xG conceded is just 1.06 which is the best defensive figure in Serie A. When you add everything together, they are the best performing side in Serie A and it’s no surprise that they top the table. While they haven’t created as much away from home as they have done at home this season, they have been very solid at the back. Their average xG conceded away is just 1.12 which is exceptionally impressive. Monza have had issues away from home, and while they have kept things more solid at home they are still marginally conceding more chances than they are creating.
You can understand why Inter are the odds on favourites here, and they come into the game trading 1.53 with Monza 7.4 and the draw is 4.6 at the time of writing. Monza and Inter Milan have only actually played each other three times, and Monza have got results in two of those games! Inter Milan won the last meeting – they won 2-0 on the opening weekend but last season Monza got a win and a draw. Monza are sitting in mid-table, and their under-lining numbers reflect that too. Inter should really get the job done here, and I’d have them trading shorter than 1.5 here. The 1.53 offers some nice value to end the day – it’s not like Monza are playing superb football at home and this is a tough place to come and win. There’s a gulf in class between the sides based on their performances and the 1.53 is simply too big on Inter. The San Siro went nuts as Inter found a 93rd minute winner in their last game, hopefully we don’t have to wait that long for a winning goal here!
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Inter Milan to beat Monza at 1.53 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MnzInt
