SATURDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews UNION BERLIN v BAYERN MUNICH and VERONA v UDINESE both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
UNION BERLIN V BAYERN MUNICH
5.30pm The European action on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE this Saturday comes from the Bundesliga and Serie A. We have two interesting markets to go through, and we start the day in the Bundesliga as Union Berlin host Bayern Munich. It wasn’t so long ago that this was a top of the table clash last season, but a lot of water has gone under the bridge since then! Union Berlin have been closer to the relegation zone than the European spots this season, while Bayern’s run of Bundesliga titles has come to an abrupt end with Bayer Leverkusen confirming the title win last weekend. The writing has been on the wall for Bayern in the title race for a while now, and all their focus has been on the Champions League. I knew not to read too much into their domestic performances recently, and we landed a nice lay on Arsenal in the first leg before landing a nice bet on Bayern on Wednesday night. It will be interesting to see how their perform here; this is basically a meaningless game and I don’t expect anyone to be playing for Bayern with a knock or anything like that before the Champions League Semi-Final.
Bayern still come into the game as the odds on favourites however; they are trading 1.65 at the time of writing with Union Berlin 5.4 and the draw is 4.6. I know Union Berlin over-performed to finish in the top four last season, but their fall from grace has been quite dramatic. They have an average xG created of only 1.15 this season which is poor, but they haven’t even been converting those chances. They are scoring less than one goal per game on average – only three clubs in the Bundesliga have a record like that this season. I know we will likely see a few changes from Bayern here after the Arsenal game midweek, but there’s a huge gulf in class between the sides here and the 1.65 is too big on Bayern in my opinion. They have been exceptional going forward and their problem has been they have been sloppy at the back; Union Berlin just haven’t been creating enough or scoring enough to trouble Bayern. Given the situation with the league gone and just off a Champions League game, I’m happy to reduce stakes but the Bayern win at 1.65 looks a fantastic bet in my opinion.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Bayern Munich to beat Union Berlin at 1.65 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/UniByn
VERONA V UDINESE
7.45pm We move over to Serie A to finish Saturday night for a huge relegation battle. The stakes couldn’t be higher here at Verona host Udinese with both clubs sitting on 28 points, just one point away from the relegation zone. There’s a host of clubs involved in the Serie A relegation battle this season, and we’re bound to see a lot of drama before the season is over. There’s only two points between 15th and 19th – Cagliari are probably involved too sitting in 14th but they have a little more cushion. Verona had to play in the relegation playoff last season, a new rule in Serie A for clubs who finish with the same amount of points, and you wouldn’t be surprised to see another playoff again this season! It’s not a surprise that we have an exceptionally open betting heat; Verona are the favourites at 2.82 with Udinese 2.94 and the draw is 3.25 at the time of writing. While I expected an open betting heat, I did feel that we would see Verona a little shorter than 2.82. Obviously both sides have been playing average football this season, but Verona have been creating more chances. Their average xG created is 1.26 compared to Udinese at just 1.11.
Both sides are very similar at the back; Udinese have an average xG conceded of 1.47 and Verona’s is just a little under that at 1.41. Both sides have really struggled in front of goal this season though, and that’s why they are in the relegation battle – they have low xG figures and they aren’t even converting those chances. They are both scoring less than one goal per game on average. I don’t see home or away form being an advantage or a disadvantage here looking at the stats, and I expect a very cagey game. We have two very limited sides, and neither can afford to lose this. I was surprised to see Under 2.5 goals trading as high as 1.72 when I clicked into the market – I know both clubs are conceding chances this season but you have to wonder are both attacks good enough to take advantage. I wouldn’t even be surprised to see a 0-0 draw here but Under 2.5 goals looks a very good value bet at 1.72. I feel it’s worth five out of five points!
The Ultra Says:
Five points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.72 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/VerUdi
