SATURDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews UNION BERLIN v FREIBURG and UNION BERLIN v FREIBURG both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
UNION BERLIN V FREIBURG
2.30pm The European season is ticking down, and we have the final matchday of the Bundesliga on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE this Saturday along with some Serie A action. We kick off the day in the Bundesliga – with the title in the bag for Bayer Leverkusen and then the top five now getting Champions League football, all the focus today will be on the relegation battle. Union Berlin are under the most intense pressure as they start the day sitting in the relegation playoff spot two points behind Mainz and three behind Bochum. Not only that, but a win last weekend for Koln only leaves them three points behind Union Berlin. It’s been an incredible turnaround for Union Berlin after finishing in the top four last season – they have a tricky fixture here too against Freiburg who are a very solid side. I know Union Berlin massively over-performed last season to finish where they did, but they were title challengers at one stage and had rock solid home form – the fall from the top has been dramatic this season! With everything on the line, Union Berlin come into the game as the favourites at 2.22 with Freiburg 3.45 and the draw is 3.6 at the time of writing.
Backing Union Berlin as favourites this season has proven very costly, and the 2.22 definitely feels on the short side here. Freiburg have a lot to play for too – they currently sit in 8th place but they are only one point off Hoffenheim in 7th who get the final European spot. Hoffenheim have to play Bayern Munich, and although they have home advantage, Freiburg will surely see this situation as a superb chance at getting European football. The main issue is they haven’t been creating a lot this season, and they’ve done really well to be where they are. They actually have an average xG created of 1.16 this season, which is 0.01 behind Union Berlin – they both have very similar figures at the back too. I wouldn’t say that I have a lot of faith in Freiburg because they have been poor this season, however Union Berlin have also been very poor and I just feel we’ll have a closer game than the odds suggest here. The 2.22 feels very short on the home win, and I’m happy with a Union lay from a value point of view.
The Ultra Says:
Two points lay (liability) Union Berlin to beat Freiburg at 2.22 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/UniFre
TORINO V AC MILAN
7.45pm Next we move over to Serie A to finish Saturday as Torino host AC Milan. We have two matchdays to go in Serie A, and I actually like the way they space out the fixtures rather than play them all at the same time. Obviously the teams who can have an impact on each other all kick off together, but for example there’s no reason in the other major leagues why we can’t focus on the title race at one time and the relegation battle at another. AC Milan can relax and enjoy their final two games, they are certain of second spot behind Inter Milan. It was pretty good news for them as well that Italy got an extra spot in the Champions League so now the top five all go through to Europe’s elite competition – AC Milan finished fourth last season, and they would have been fifth bar the Juventus point deduction. Torino can also enjoy the end of the season as they sit happily in mid-table. They have been pretty limited going forward this season, but they have been solid at the back especially at home. Their average xG conceded here is only 0.95 which is a very impressive figure – their overall figure of 1.17 is the joint-fourth best defensive figure in Serie A too.
That has definitely been the reason why they sit in mid-table because their attacking figure is quite poor. Their average xG created is only 1.12 which is in the bottom six attacking figures. It will be interesting to see do they open up a little and enjoy the final games, but they have mainly focused on being solid at the back all season. We have an exceptionally open betting heat; AC Milan are the favourites at 2.7 with Torino 2.92 and the draw is 3.35 at the time of writing. I’m happy to be a little on the cagey side with stakes here as we draw to the end of the season, but this game screams a lack of chances and goals in my opinion. The negative is neither side have anything to play for, but Under 2.5 goals still looks a little value at 1.77. Torino have been very solid here all season and I can’t see that changing. AC Milan won 4-1 when the sides met very early in the season but Under 2.5 goals has collected in four of the last six meetings.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.77 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/TorAcm
