BUNDESLIGA/LA LIGA SATURDAY: Our European football tipster The Ultra previews the top European action on Saturday with recommended BETDAQ bets.
The Ultra is a professional football trader with over ten years experience betting on European football. He has gladly agreed to do a weekly column on BETDAQ Tips where you can get all his latest bets.
The Ultra has a staking system between one and five points, with five points for only his most confident bets in Europe. He loves looking at the stats before each game and especially enjoys using xG (Expected Goals) to make a profit.
REAL MADRID V HUESCA
1pm We have another Super Saturday in Europe today with all the big teams in action! All football bets are also 0% commission on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. today so let’s bang in a few winners! We start the day with Real Madrid hosting La Liga new boys Huesca after a very odd run of form. They managed to lose 1-0 to Cadiz, 3-2 to Shakhtar and draw 2-2 with Gladbach – however sandwiched in that run of form is a 3-1 win in El Clasico! The 2-2 draw with Gladbach was a little unlucky but the two performances against Cadiz and Shakhtar were very poor. Perhaps Real won’t be as strong as last season, but the good news for them is neither are Barcelona.
Huesca have been tough to beat at the start of the season; they probably would have taken four draws from their last six. They managed a 0-0 draw with Atletico Madrid, but xG says Atletico were very unlucky not to win. I feel under 2.5 goals offers good value here at 2.22. Huesca have tried to keep games very tight, and while Real have been performing a little poorly lately they have generally been solid at the back. I can see a very tight affair, much like the Real v Cadiz game; however this time Real might come out on top with a 1-0 win.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 2.22 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQReaHue
KOLN V BAYERN MUNICH
2.30pm The Germen Champions are in action at 2-30pm against Koln who start Matchday 6 in the bottom three. Koln were one of the more unlucky sides last year in the sense that they kept putting in good xG numbers but not getting results. Perhaps their last game against Stuttgart is a good example of this – they had to settle for a 1-1 draw but won the game 2.14 to 0.64 on xG. They were desperately unlucky to lose against Arminia Bielefeld too; but at the end of the day we’re in the results business and they come up against the best team in the league here.
Bayern look a little short here at 1.2 considering that Koln have been creating chances, but I wouldn’t be happy laying them. Koln like to play an open game, and if they do that against Bayern it’s only going to be one way traffic. Bayern have started the season in superb form – apart from a shock loss against Hoffenheim quickly after the Super Cup they have been putting in some very impressive numbers. I think Koln can score tonight though, and with Bayern scoring for fun I like Over 3.5 goals at 1.62 in what should be a very open game.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Over 3.5 goals at 1.62 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQKolBay
MONCHENGLADBACH V RB LEIPZIG
5.30pm RB Leipzig have to pick themselves up quickly and dust themselves down after a 5-0 loss to Manchester United midweek in the Champions League. Late goals made the score-line worse than the match went for Leipzig, but I’d be more worried about them only creating an xG of 0.46 with a view to the future. They still start the weekend top of the Bundesliga though, and they’ll just have to move on quickly. This should be a very good game – Gladbach have been very tough to beat after a positive start to the season.
Although Gladbach have been beating sides like Koln and Mainz domestically – they’ve started the Champions League with two 2-2 draws against Real Madrid and Inter Milan. Not a bad start! Granted, they were lucky to get two draws, but they will take it. Leipzig have been scoring freely domestically, and with Gladbach playing an open game we should see plenty of goals here. Over 2.5 goals looks cracking value at 1.58, especially with 0% commission on BETDAQ today, and is my most confident bet of the day. This match just screams goals on paper.
The Ultra Says:
Four points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.58 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQGlaRbl
ALAVES V BARCELONA
8pm We finish a Super Saturday with Barcelona away to Alaves. It’s fair to say that Barcelona haven’t been themselves so far this season, and in fairness it all comes back to the drama with Messi during the summer. I think we’ll see some very surprising results from Barcelona this season, but their class will get them through at certain stages of the season. Perhaps the 2-0 win over Juventus midweek in the Champions League will give them some confidence going forward, although Juve were without Ronaldo.
For me, Barcelona look too short here at 1.5 and I’m happy to have a small lay on them. Prior to losing 3-1 in El Clasico, they lost 1-0 away to Getafe in a very poor performance. Alaves might not have the class to match them here, but they have been creating some good chances. In their last six they have created xG’s of; 2.40, 1.77, 0.81, 1.28, 1.45 and 0.82. They were exceptionally unlucky to lose 2-0 to Elche in a game they won 1.77 to 0.97 on xG. Barcelona might get the job done here, but I think 1.5 is too short and expect a closer game than those odds. The lay is worth a small investment to finish the day.
The Ultra Says:
One point lay (liability) Barcelona to beat Alaves at 1.5 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQAlaBrc
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