BUNDESLIGA / LA LIGA PREVIEW: Our European football tipster The Ultra previews Saturday’s games between BAYER LEVERKUSEN v WOLFSBURG, REAL SOCIEDAD v REAL BETIS and ALAVES v REAL MADRID all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
BAYER LEVERKUSEN V WOLFSBURG
2.30pm Another Super Saturday ahead in Europe with all football bets 0% commission on BETDAQ Betting Exchange! We start with a cracker from the Bundesliga as Bayer Leverkusen take on Wolfsburg. We have plenty of top five clashes in recent weeks and this is just another. Despite Bayern not exactly firing this season, nobody has been able to make up any ground and we’re in danger of Bayern running away with the Bundesliga again. They were always going to win, but at one stage it looked like it could be a close race this season. Leverkusen would have been delighted to break their poor spell with a 2-1 in over Dortmund, and perhaps gutted they dropped points against Werder Bremen and Union Berlin when they can beat the top sides.
Wolfsburg are only three points behind Leverkusen in fifth position, and they are having a solid season. You can see by looking at their xG figures that they like to play an open game and that has cost them at certain stages this season. They have been lucky and unlucky lately – they were lucky to draw 2-0 against RB Leipzig with an xG of 2.24 to 0.83 in favour of Leipzig but they were very unlucky to lose against Dortmund when xG finishing 2.27 to 2.13 and they also should have beaten Union Berlin. Despite Leverkusen getting back to winning ways against Dortmund, I think Wolfsburg will give them a very tough time tonight. They create a lot of chances and the Leverkusen win is simply too short at 2.16.
The Ultra Says:
Two points lay (liability) Bayer Leverkusen to beat Wolfsburg at 2.16 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQLevWol
REAL SOCIEDAD V REAL BETIS
5.30pm We move to La Liga for my final two bets of the day, with the first coming between Real Sociedad and Real Betis. I feel the odds are all wrong here, and Real Sociedad shouldn’t be odds on. Real Betis have won their last four in all competitions; although granted two of those were against weaker opposition in the domestic Cup – they are still performing very well and creating a lot of chances. Sociedad started the season very strongly and actually topped La Liga for a while but they have fallen away with some very poor results.
There’s only four points between them in the table now, with Real Betis catching up quickly as Sociedad fail to win games. They have been held by the likes of Osasuna, Eibar and Alves – then they have also lost to Levante. Indeed, they haven’t performed really well since November. Their xG figures have gone down and they aren’t creating the same volume of chances. I feel we’ll have a very close game here, and granted Sociedad might come out on top but they aren’t 1.9 shots to do so for me and I have to lay those odds from a value point of view.
The Ultra Says:
Two points lay (liability) Real Sociedad to beat Real Betis at 1.9 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQSocBet
ALAVES V REAL MADRID
8pm We finish the day with the La Liga Champions Real Madrid hoping to close the extending gap on Atletico Madrid at the top of the table. After Atletico won midweek, Real are now seven points behind having played a game more. It’s getting to the stage now where Real can’t afford to drop anymore points even half way through the season. Zidane obviously has a number of issues in the dressing room at the moment – the old guard is getting just that, older. And the new guard either isn’t ready or he can’t seem to get them to gel into the team. They were knocked out of the domestic Cup midweek by Alcoyano and couldn’t beat Osasuna prior to that – their xG was only 0.50!
Alaves and Osasuna are beside each other in the table with not much in it, and I wouldn’t be rushing to lump on Real at 1.54 here. I think we’re at the stage where we just can’t trust them at odds on like. Very similar to Barcelona this season, although like with Barcelona they can offer value when we start to see 1.65+ against sides like this. Alaves are on a losing run in La Liga, but they were unlucky to lose against Sevilla recently looking at xG. I feel we’ll see a quiet game here with Real struggling to create a lot of chances. Under 2.5 goals is worth backing at 2.15.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 2.15 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQAlaRea
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