SATURDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews Saturday’s games between UNION BERLIN v HOFFENHEIM, ATLETICO MADRID v REAL VALLADOLID and SEVILLA v CADIZ all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
UNION BERLIN V HOFFENHEIM
2.30pm The Bundesliga is back, and we have an intriguing Saturday ahead on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. We have some big games in La Liga later, but we kick the day off in the Bundesliga as Union Berlin host Hoffenheim. Union Berlin started the season like a rocket, and actually topped the table for a while too as Bayern Munich dropped points. That feels like a long time ago now though, and not just because of the World Cup and winter break. Union Berlin actually went into the World Cup having dropped out of the top four, they only managed one win from their five games heading into the World Cup, and from that point of view the World Cup probably came at a good time for Union Berlin. That being said, anyone looking at the under-lining numbers from Union Berlin knew their results would turn at some point. They really weren’t creating the chances deserving of the goals they were scoring – their average xG was only 1.0. The positive is that they have been solid at the back, only conceding an average of 1.1 per game this season. Hoffenheim games have been more entertaining, but their stats are quite similar in the sense that they are very close to conceding what they are creating.
I was surprised to see Union Berlin trading as short as 2.3 when I clicked into the market. Hoffenheim went into the World Cup off the back of a few losses too, but I expected to see a more open market. I can understand the market favouring Union here because they have been pretty impressive at home this season. The Union Berlin lay at 2.3 is a tempting position, but the bet that catches my eye here is Both Teams To Score at 1.8. Hoffenheim games have been very end-to-end this season, and I can’t see them changing here. Union should be able to score at some stage with home advantage, and I can see Hoffenheim playing an even more open game if they go behind. We could have a very entertaining game here and end up with another 3-3 of 4-2 involving Hoffenheim, but BTTS looks a nice option to start the day.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Both Teams To Score at 1.8 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/UniHof
ATLETICO MADRID V REAL VALLADOLID
5.30pm We move to La Liga next as Atletico Madrid host Real Valladolid! It’s fair to say it’s been a disappointing season so far for Atletico Madrid, and they dropped further points last weekend away to Almeria. Their performance was good, they finished the game with an xG of 2.24, but they had to settle for a 1-1 draw. They managed to barely hold onto their spot in the top four, but already knocked out of the Champions League and didn’t even get the Europa League spot either, anything bar a top four finish in La Liga would be a total disaster. Looking at the table, you’d have to say that this is a “must win” game for Atletico Madrid. Real Valladolid have put three losses together since returning from the World Cup and they have slipped down to 17th in the table. They start the weekend sitting only one point away from the relegation zone, and when you think Sevilla are sitting in the bottom three – surely at some stage they are going to put a few wins together and that’s going to put major pressure on the likes of Real Valladolid. The market is confident on the home win here, with Atletico trading 1.41 at the time of writing. To be honest, it’s hard to see anything bar a comfortable home win here – Real Valladolid have been so poor away from home this season.
Even allowing for the fact that Atletico haven’t really been firing this season, when you consider that Real Valladolid have only managed four points away from home all season, I feel this is a case of how many goals Atletico Madrid can score rather than will they win. I feel that’s a big question for punters to answer here, because Atletico have clearly struggled to score goals this season. There’s only a 0.3 difference between their chances created and conceded this season, which is why they have dropped so many points. When you look at the Real Valladolid stats, it’s easy to see why they are struggling this season. They are conceding very close to two goals per game on average this season and they are only creating close to one. I expect them to be very negative here, and go into the game in a very cagey manner. This will cause Atletico problems, but I expect them to grind out a 1-0 or 2-0 win. Under 2.5 goals is trading 2.03 and that looks cracking value – Atletico haven’t fired this season but they can still win this one in a low scoring game.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 2.03 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AtlVal
SEVILLA V CADIZ
8pm We stay in La Liga to finish an interesting day as Sevilla host Cadiz. This is an absolutely huge relegation battle, probably the biggest game of the season so far at the bottom of the table! We’ve already had so much discussion around Sevilla this season, but their performances continue to be poor and they have really struggled to make any progress. Maybe, with home advantage here, this game can kick-start their season and they can start to move up the table. You’d have to think if Sevilla lose here they are in a terrible position, and suddenly the threat of relegation seems real. I think at the moment nobody really expects Sevilla to go down, even if they’ve spent so long in the bottom three. Cadiz would have been absolutely gutted to only draw with Elche last weekend – that was a huge game for them and as I said at the time, a must win game for Cadiz with home advantage. Elche haven’t managed to win a game yet this season, and at the time only had four points all season. That was a golden opportunity for Cadiz to build a nice cushion before this fixture, but as it stands Cadiz have 16 points with Sevilla one point behind them on 15.
Sevilla come into the game as the odds on favourites – currently trading 1.74 at the time of writing – however it would take a very brave punter to back Sevilla at odds on these days. They have been so average this season, and got totally outplayed last weekend again by Girona. Obviously Cadiz have been poor this season too, they sit in the bottom three as well after all, but I still wouldn’t back Sevilla at odds as short as 1.74. Sevilla, who have been a top four sides for so many seasons, have stats like a side in the relegation battle which is incredible when you think about it. They are conceding an average xG of 2.0 per game this season, which is actually worse than their actual figure so things could be even worse than they are. Cadiz have very similar stats in the sense that they are conceding an average of two goals per game while only creating an xG of close to 1.0 per game. While I feel Sevilla are very short at 1.74, I’m happy to stay out of the match odds market here and back Over 2.5 goals at 2.26. I was surprised to see Under 2.5 goals so short when I clicked into the market given how poor both sides have been at the back this season. An early goal could cause carnage here really in what could be a very end-to-end game with plenty of mistakes. Overs looks cracking value in my opinion.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 2.26 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SevCdz
